Rutgers vs Northwestern Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
RUTG	3	3	8	0	14
NU	21	7	0	14	42

Rutgers vs Northwestern picks

3 picks · Northwestern by 24 · 52 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

NU MLodds up −769 Won 92%

Northwestern wins the game.

Confidence92%

Model82.5% SportsbooksOdds87.2% Edge−4.7

Spread

RUTG +24.5odds down −286 Lost 80%

Rutgers wins, or loses by 24 points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model70.6% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+1.3

Total

Under 66.5odds up −238 Won 74%

The two teams score 66 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model77.9% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+8.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Rutgers0707714

Northwestern14100142438

Most likely final scoresRUTG 14–38 NU 0.5%RUTG 21–35 NU 0.5%RUTG 14–35 NU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

RutgersNorthwestern

Offense

354▼ 344 Total yards ▲ 504420

231▼ 100 Passing yards ▼ 219221

123▲ 244 Rushing yards ▲ 285199

20▼ 18 First downs ▲ 2621

Scoring

2▼ 1 Touchdowns ▲ 65

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns = 33

0▲ 2 Field goals made ▼ 01

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

46▼ 35 Penalty yards = 5050

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 281.5 Proj. 354 72% Won · 344

Passing yards Over 174.5 Proj. 231 72% Lost · 100

Rushing yards Over 70.5 Proj. 123 72% Won · 244

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 18

Total yards Over 346.5 Proj. 420 72% Won · 504

Passing yards Over 163.5 Proj. 221 72% Won · 219

Rushing yards Over 147.5 Proj. 199 72% Won · 285

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 73% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Rutgers

QB Dylan Lonergan16/26 · 180 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.9 INT 180pass yds

RB Clay Thevenin9 carries · 43 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 43rush yds

WR/TE KJ Duff8 rec · 107 yds · 0.6 TD 107rec yds

WR/TE Dyzier Carter3 rec · 33 yds · 0.0 TD 33rec yds

Northwestern

QB Aidan Chiles17/26 · 221 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT 221pass yds

RB Caleb Komolafe11 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec 70rush yds

WR/TE Griffin Wilde5 rec · 76 yds · 0.7 TD 76rec yds

WR/TE Drew Wagner3 rec · 28 yds · 0.2 TD 28rec yds

Road form. Rutgers is 1-1 on the road this season.

Home form. Northwestern is 4-0 at home, scoring 38.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at NU −16.5 and is now NU −15.5, a 1-point move toward Rutgers.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Northwestern has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

RutgersNorthwestern

2-4Record5-1

1-1 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W1StreakW3

7 daysRest7 days

31.2Points per game33.5

31.8Points allowed17.0

−4 Point differentialseason to date +99

266Passing yards / game233

138Rushing yards / game192

42%3rd-down conversion43%

6Takeaways9

0Sacks0

11Turnovers2

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Rutgers’ road games with Northwestern’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.