Moneyline
BAL MLodds down +144
Won 55%
The Ravens win the game.
Confidence55%
Model52.1%
SportsbooksOdds37.7%
Edge+14.4
Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 12, 12:00 AM ET
Ravens vs Falcons picks
3 picks · Ravens by 3 · 51 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
BAL +9.5odds down −270
Won 73%
The Ravens win, or lose by nine points or fewer.
Confidence73%
Model61.6%
SportsbooksOdds69.7%
Edge−8.1
TotalBest pick
Over 37−278
Won 76%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them (exactly 37 is a push).
Confidence76%
Model62.8%
SportsbooksOdds71.0%
Edge−8.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Ravens710371727
Falcons0100141024
Most likely final scoresBAL 27–24 ATL 0.9%BAL 30–27 ATL 0.7%BAL 23–20 ATL 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
RavensFalcons
Offense
349▲ 391
Total yards
▲ 367337
235▼ 183
Passing yards
▲ 257210
114▲ 208
Rushing yards
▼ 110127
19▲ 24
First downs
▼ 1720
Scoring
3= 3
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 02
2▲ 3
Field goals made
▲ 31
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0▲ 1
Fumbles lost
= 00
2▲ 4
Sacks allowed
▲ 32
52▼ 40
Penalty yards
▲ 6752
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 302.5
Proj. 349
72%
Won · 391
Passing yards
Over 193.5
Proj. 235
72%
Lost · 183
Rushing yards
Over 85.5
Proj. 114
72%
Won · 208
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 19
73%
Won · 24
Total yards
Over 290.5
Proj. 337
72%
Won · 367
Passing yards
Over 168.5
Proj. 210
72%
Won · 257
Rushing yards
Over 98.5
Proj. 127
72%
Won · 110
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
70%
Lost · 17
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Ravens
QB
Lamar Jackson19/30 · 235 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
235pass yds
RB
Derrick Henry18 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec
70rush yds
WR/TE
Zay Flowers7 rec · 109 yds · 0.8 TD
109rec yds
WR/TE
Mark Andrews5 rec · 36 yds · 0.3 TD
36rec yds
Falcons
QB
Michael Penix Jr.20/31 · 210 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
210pass yds
RB
Bijan Robinson17 carries · 87 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 4 rec
87rush yds
WR/TE
Drake London6 rec · 108 yds · 0.0 TD
108rec yds
WR/TE
Jahan Dotson2 rec · 28 yds · 0.3 TD
28rec yds
Road form. The Ravens are 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 10.5 points a game.
Home form. The Falcons are 0-1 at home, scoring 3.0 points a game there.
Rest. The Ravens come in on 7 days’ rest, the Falcons on 6.
Tale of the tape
Baltimore RavensAtlanta Falcons
Baltimore RavensAtlanta Falcons
3-1Record2-2
2-0 roadRoad / home0-1 home
W2StreakW2
7 daysRest6 days
29.0Points per game24.0
24.0Points allowed23.0
+20
Point differentialseason to date
+4
6.6Yards per play5.9
242Passing yards / game180
154Rushing yards / game181
32%3rd-down conversion37%
73%Red-zone touchdowns80%
5Takeaways3
7Sacks7
2Turnovers8
7.2Yards per play4.3
245Passing yards / game129
197Rushing yards / game157
33%3rd-down conversion31%
3Takeaways0
3Sacks2
1Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Ravens’ road games with the Falcons’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Ravens
3-1
LWLWW
Wk 4Oct 4vs TEN
Titans18Ravens24
Titans moneyline +525Ravens moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ DAL
Ravens34Cowboys31
Ravens moneyline −182Cowboys moneyline +150
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs NO
Saints24Ravens17
Saints moneyline +315Ravens moneyline −435
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ IND
Ravens41Colts23
Ravens moneyline −161Colts moneyline +133
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026@ PIT
Ravens24Steelers26
Ravens moneyline −238Steelers moneyline +180
LFINAL
Falcons
2-2
WLLWW
Wk 4Oct 5@ NO
Falcons45Saints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24@ GB
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs CAR
Panthers34Falcons3
Panthers moneyline −147Falcons moneyline +118
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13@ PIT
Falcons13Steelers20
Falcons moneyline +235Steelers moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026vs NO
Saints17Falcons19
Saints moneyline +165Falcons moneyline −208
WFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC North
NFC South
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
RAVENS
1
Wins
Avg. points17.0 – 9.0
Avg. total26.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
FALCONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 16M&T Bank Stadium
Falcons9Ravens17
Falcons moneyline +230Ravens moneyline −278
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (BAL)+145+145
Moneyline (ATL)−175−175
Spread (ATL)−3.5−3.5
Total43.543.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Baltimore Ravens beat the Atlanta Falcons 30–23 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season (Sunday Night Football on NBC), on Sunday, October 11 at 8:20 PM ET, at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta. The moneyline had the Ravens at +145 and the Falcons at −175.
Our model predicted a final score of Ravens 27, Falcons 24. Its picks: the Ravens to win (+144), won; the Ravens +9.5 (−270), won; over 37 points (−278), won. The best pick was over 37 points, at 76% confidence.