Moneyline
NE MLodds up −192
Won 85%
The Patriots win the game.
Confidence85%
Model67.9%
SportsbooksOdds64.2%
Edge+3.7
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 11, 4:19 PM ET
Raiders vs Patriots picks
3 picks · Patriots by 3 · 37 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
NE +2.5odds up −256
Won 85%
The Patriots win, or lose by two points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model72.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.2%
Edge+3.3
TotalBest pick
Under 52−270
Lost 85%
The two teams score 51 or fewer points between them (exactly 52 is a push).
Confidence85%
Model71.7%
SportsbooksOdds70.5%
Edge+1.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Raiders0377317
Patriots010731020
Most likely final scoresLV 17–20 NE 0.9%LV 24–27 NE 0.9%LV 21–24 NE 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
RaidersPatriots
Offense
283▲ 306
Total yards
▲ 536352
190▲ 268
Passing yards
▲ 371217
93▼ 38
Rushing yards
▲ 165135
18▼ 16
First downs
▲ 2920
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▲ 62
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 41
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
1= 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
0▲ 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 10
2▲ 3
Sacks allowed
▼ 13
48▲ 101
Penalty yards
▲ 11649
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 236.5
Proj. 283
72%
Won · 306
Passing yards
Over 148.5
Proj. 190
72%
Won · 268
Rushing yards
Over 64.5
Proj. 93
72%
Lost · 38
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
74%
Won · 16
Total yards
Over 305.5
Proj. 352
72%
Won · 536
Passing yards
Over 175.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 371
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 136
72%
Won · 165
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
71%
Won · 29
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Raiders
QB
Kirk Cousins21/33 · 190 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
190pass yds
RB
Ashton Jeanty16 carries · 66 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 4 rec
66rush yds
WR/TE
Brock Bowers6 rec · 65 yds · 0.4 TD
65rec yds
WR/TE
Michael Mayer4 rec · 32 yds · 0.1 TD
32rec yds
Patriots
QB
Drake Maye19/30 · 216 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
216pass yds
RB
TreVeyon Henderson13 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.5 TD
53rush yds
WR/TE
Mack Hollins4 rec · 53 yds · 0.0 TD
53rec yds
WR/TE
Romeo Doubs3 rec · 51 yds · 0.5 TD
51rec yds
Road form. The Raiders are 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 10.0 points a game.
Home form. The Patriots are 1-0 at home, scoring 20.0 points a game there.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
The series. The Raiders have won 3 of the last 3 meetings.
Tale of the tape
Las Vegas RaidersNew England Patriots
Las Vegas RaidersNew England Patriots
3-1Record2-2
2-0 roadRoad / home1-0 home
L1StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
28.8Points per game16.3
21.0Points allowed19.3
+31
Point differentialseason to date
−12
5.1Yards per play5.2
250Passing yards / game214
93Rushing yards / game118
40%3rd-down conversion35%
53%Red-zone touchdowns44%
9Takeaways5
12Sacks8
6Turnovers10
5.2Yards per play6.2
238Passing yards / game191
85Rushing yards / game136
42%3rd-down conversion33%
56%Red-zone touchdowns0%
7Takeaways2
5Sacks4
2Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Raiders’ road games with the Patriots’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Raiders
3-1
WWWWL
Wk 4Oct 4vs KC
Chiefs30Raiders27
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +185
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ NO
Raiders35Saints27
Raiders moneyline +150Saints moneyline −200
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ LAC
Raiders26Chargers14
Raiders moneyline +245Chargers moneyline −313
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs MIA
Dolphins13Raiders27
Dolphins moneyline +133Raiders moneyline −169
WFINAL
Wk 18Jan 4, 2026vs KC
Chiefs12Raiders14
Chiefs moneyline −227Raiders moneyline +157
WFINAL
Patriots
2-2
LLWLW
Wk 4Oct 4@ BUF
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ JAX
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs PIT
Steelers3Patriots20
Steelers moneyline +185Patriots moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 9@ SEA
Patriots10Seahawks13
Patriots moneyline +147Seahawks moneyline −182
LFINAL
Super BowlFeb 8, 2026vs SEA
Seahawks29Patriots13
Seahawks moneyline −233Patriots moneyline +190
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC West
Head-to-head
Last three meetings · regular season and playoffs
RAIDERS
3
Wins
Avg. points23.7 – 18.0
Avg. total41.7 pts
Over closing total1 of 3
0
PATRIOTS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 1Gillette Stadium
Raiders20Patriots13
Raiders moneyline +120Patriots moneyline −147
2023 · Wk 6Allegiant Stadium
Patriots17Raiders21
Patriots moneyline +128Raiders moneyline −152
2022 · Wk 15Allegiant Stadium
Patriots24Raiders30
Patriots moneyline +112Raiders moneyline −135
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (LV)+149down +148
Moneyline (NE)−185−185
Spread (NE)−3.5−3.5
Total4545
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The New England Patriots beat the Las Vegas Raiders 45–17 in NFL Week 5 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough. The moneyline had the Raiders at +148 and the Patriots at −185.
Our model predicted a final score of Raiders 17, Patriots 20. Its picks: the Patriots to win (−192), won; the Patriots +2.5 (−256), won; under 52 points (−270), lost. The best pick was under 52 points, at 85% confidence.