MoneylineBest pick
PSU MLodds down −435
Won 93%
Penn State wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model78.5%
SportsbooksOdds75.0%
Edge+3.5
Purdue vs Penn State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 7 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 17 |
| PSU | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
PURDUE 22%
Pre-game win chance
78% PENN STATE
PSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 31, 7:33 PM ET
Purdue vs Penn State picks
3 picks · Penn State by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
PSU +1.5odds down −370
Won 86%
Penn State wins, or loses by one point or fewer.
Confidence86%
Model80.1%
SportsbooksOdds73.3%
Edge+6.8
Total
Under 61.5odds up −196
Won 74%
The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model70.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.9%
Edge+1.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Purdue0777721
Penn State014771428
Most likely final scoresPUR 21–28 PSU 0.7%PUR 7–35 PSU 0.6%PUR 24–27 PSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
PurduePenn State
Offense
337▼ 175
Total yards
▲ 457410
194▼ 142
Passing yards
▼ 188257
143▼ 33
Rushing yards
▲ 269153
19▼ 9
First downs
▲ 2221
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
= 44
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
2▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 32
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1▲ 2
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
50▼ 23
Penalty yards
▲ 6549
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 263.5
Proj. 337
72%
Lost · 175
Passing yards
Over 137.5
Proj. 194
72%
Won · 142
Rushing yards
Over 90.5
Proj. 143
72%
Lost · 33
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Lost · 9
Total yards
Over 337.5
Proj. 410
72%
Won · 457
Passing yards
Over 200.5
Proj. 257
72%
Lost · 188
Rushing yards
Over 100.5
Proj. 153
72%
Won · 269
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Purdue
QB
Ryan Browne16/28 · 180 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT
180pass yds
RB
Fame Ijeboi20 carries · 95 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 2 rec
95rush yds
WR/TE
Asaad Waseem4 rec · 58 yds · 0.0 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Xavier Townsend3 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD
39rec yds
Penn State
QB
Rocco Becht19/30 · 247 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
247pass yds
RB
Carson Hansen10 carries · 47 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec
47rush yds
WR/TE
Chase Sowell5 rec · 85 yds · 0.8 TD
85rec yds
WR/TE
Andrew Rappleyea4 rec · 31 yds · 0.5 TD
31rec yds
Road form. Purdue is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 3.5 points a game.
Home form. Penn State is 2-2 at home, scoring 35.8 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at PSU −7.5 and is now PSU −10.5, a 3-point move toward Penn State.
Rest. Purdue comes in on 15 days’ rest, Penn State on 14.
Streak. Penn State has lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
PurduePenn State
PurduePenn State
3-4Record3-4
1-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home
L1StreakL4
15 daysRest14 days
31.3Points per game28.7
32.3Points allowed18.9
−7
Point differentialseason to date
+69
281Passing yards / game253
128Rushing yards / game131
44%3rd-down conversion36%
10Takeaways11
0Sacks0
6Turnovers7
340Passing yards / game249
77Rushing yards / game164
40%3rd-down conversion34%
1Takeaways7
0Sacks0
3Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Purdue’s road games with Penn State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Purdue
3-4
LLWWL
Wk 7Oct 16vs WASH
Washington38Purdue26
Washington moneyline +133Purdue moneyline −167
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs MINN
Minnesota13Purdue41
Minnesota moneyline −152Purdue moneyline +125
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ ILL
Purdue24Illinois17
Purdue moneyline +260Illinois moneyline −385
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs ND
Notre Dame49Purdue10
Notre Dame moneyline −5000Purdue moneyline +1300
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ UCLA
Purdue38UCLA52
Purdue moneyline +420UCLA moneyline −714
LFINAL
Penn State
3-4
WLLLL
Wk 7Oct 17@ MICH
Penn State18Michigan21
Penn State moneyline +190Michigan moneyline −233
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs USC
USC31Penn State23
USC moneyline −116Penn State moneyline −116
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2@ NU
Penn State13Northwestern34
Penn State moneyline −154Northwestern moneyline +120
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs WIS
Wisconsin24Penn State20
Wisconsin moneyline +315Penn State moneyline −476
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs BUFF
Buffalo13Penn State55
Buffalo moneyline +1600Penn State moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig Ten
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (PUR)+335down +330
Moneyline (PSU)−500−500
Spread (PSU)−7.5down −10.5
Total54.5up 56.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Penn State beat Purdue 31–17 in college football Week 9, on Saturday, October 31 at 4:15 PM ET. The moneyline had Purdue at +330 and Penn State at −500.
Our model predicted a final score of Purdue 21, Penn State 28. Its picks: Penn State to win (−435), won; Penn State +1.5 (−370), won; under 61.5 points (−196), won. The best pick was Penn State to win, at 93% confidence.