Purdue vs Iowa Prediction & Picks

Purdue vs Iowa picks

3 picks · Iowa by 28 · 42 points

Moneyline

IOWA MLodds down −1111 95%

Iowa wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model86.9% SportsbooksOdds89.7% Edge−2.8

Spread

IOWA −9.5−250 79%

Iowa wins by 10 points or more.

Confidence79%

Model68.9% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+0.9

TotalBest pick

Over 40.5odds down −263 79%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence79%

Model71.6% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+2.7

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Purdue070077

Iowa714772135

Most likely final scoresPUR 7–35 IOWA 0.9%PUR 14–42 IOWA 0.6%PUR 14–38 IOWA 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

PurdueIowa

Offense

308 Total yards 403

213 Passing yards 222

95 Rushing yards 181

17 First downs 20

Scoring

1 Touchdowns 4

1 Passing touchdowns 2

0 Rushing touchdowns 2

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

47 Penalty yards 52

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 234.5 Proj. 308 72%

Passing yards Over 156.5 Proj. 213 72%

Rushing yards Over 42.5 Proj. 95 72%

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 73%

Total yards Over 330.5 Proj. 403 72%

Passing yards Over 165.5 Proj. 222 72%

Rushing yards Over 128.5 Proj. 181 72%

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Purdue

QB Ryan Browne18/31 · 202 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.7 INT 202pass yds

RB Fame Ijeboi17 carries · 51 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 51rush yds

WR/TE Asaad Waseem4 rec · 63 yds · 0.0 TD 63rec yds

WR/TE Xavier Townsend4 rec · 28 yds · 0.2 TD 28rec yds

Iowa

QB Hank Brown15/23 · 193 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 193pass yds

RB L.J. Phillips Jr.11 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 61rush yds

WR/TE Reece Vander Zee4 rec · 62 yds · 0.9 TD 62rec yds

WR/TE DJ Vonnahme4 rec · 47 yds · 0.7 TD 47rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at IOWA −16.5 and is now IOWA −17.5, a 1-point move toward Iowa.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Purdue has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

PurdueIowa

3-6Record7-2

L3StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

29.4Points per game27.8

32.3Points allowed12.2

15th Big TenConference3rd Big Ten

−26 Point differentialseason to date +140

267Passing yards / game200

118Rushing yards / game174

41%3rd-down conversion41%

11Takeaways9

0Sacks0

9Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Purdue’s road games with Iowa’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.