Pittsburgh vs Miami Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PITT	0	7	7	9	23
MIA	10	21	14	7	52

Pitt vs Miami picks

3 picks · Miami by 28 · 56 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

MIA MLodds down −2500 Won 95%

Miami wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model89.5% SportsbooksOdds94.1% Edge−4.6

Spread

MIA −11.5odds down −286 Won 80%

Miami wins by 12 points or more.

Confidence80%

Model69.7% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge−0.1

TotalBest pick

Over 43.5odds up −263 Won 81%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence81%

Model75.1% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+4.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Pitt0077014

Miami7147142142

Most likely final scoresPITT 14–42 MIA 0.6%PITT 14–38 MIA 0.6%PITT 7–45 MIA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

PittMiami

Offense

330▲ 403 Total yards ▲ 506447

233▲ 334 Passing yards ▲ 387306

97▼ 69 Rushing yards ▼ 119141

18= 18 First downs ▲ 2523

Scoring

2▲ 3 Touchdowns ▲ 75

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▲ 43

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

0= 0 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

67▼ 54 Penalty yards ▲ 7759

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 257.5 Proj. 330 72% Won · 403

Passing yards Over 176.5 Proj. 233 72% Won · 334

Rushing yards Over 44.5 Proj. 97 72% Won · 69

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 73% Won · 18

Total yards Over 373.5 Proj. 447 72% Won · 506

Passing yards Over 248.5 Proj. 306 72% Won · 387

Rushing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 141 72% Won · 119

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 72% Won · 25

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Pitt

QB Corey Dailey6/14 · 76 pass yds · 0.2 TD · 0.8 INT 76pass yds

RB Damon Ferguson Jr.11 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Cataurus Hicks4 rec · 59 yds · 0.3 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Carson Kent3 rec · 32 yds · 0.1 TD 32rec yds

Miami

QB Darian Mensah20/28 · 270 pass yds · 2.6 TD · 0.4 INT 270pass yds

RB Mark Fletcher Jr.13 carries · 45 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec 45rush yds

WR/TE Malachi Toney7 rec · 116 yds · 1.1 TD 116rec yds

WR/TE Cooper Barkate3 rec · 41 yds · 0.6 TD 41rec yds

Road form. Pitt is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.

Home form. Miami is 3-0 at home, scoring 57.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MIA −23.5 and is now MIA −21.5, a 2-point move toward Pitt.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Miami has won 6 in a row.

Tale of the tape

PittsburghMiami

5-2Record6-0

1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

L2StreakW6

7 daysRest7 days

32.9Points per game48.5

16.4Points allowed14.0

+115 Point differentialseason to date +207

285Passing yards / game333

166Rushing yards / game227

43%3rd-down conversion52%

11Takeaways8

0Sacks0

7Turnovers4

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Pitt’s road games with Miami’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.