Pittsburgh vs Boston College Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PITT	12	0	6	3	21
BC	7	7	7	6	27

Pitt vs Boston College picks

3 picks · Pitt by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

PITT MLodds down −278 Lost 93%

Pitt wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model72.1% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+2.9

Spread

PITT +2.5odds down −278 Lost 83%

Pitt wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence83%

Model75.8% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+6.9

Total

Over 36.5odds up −222 Won 74%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model73.0% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+3.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Pitt1400141428

Boston College014071421

Most likely final scoresPITT 28–21 BC 0.7%PITT 31–24 BC 0.6%PITT 31–28 BC 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

PittBoston College

Offense

397▼ 392 Total yards ▲ 398344

239▼ 193 Passing yards ▲ 295240

158▲ 199 Rushing yards ▼ 103104

22= 22 First downs ▲ 2518

Scoring

4▼ 1 Touchdowns ▲ 43

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

61▲ 133 Penalty yards ▼ 4859

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 323.5 Proj. 397 72% Won · 392

Passing yards Over 182.5 Proj. 239 72% Won · 193

Rushing yards Over 105.5 Proj. 158 72% Won · 199

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 72% Won · 22

Total yards Over 270.5 Proj. 344 72% Won · 398

Passing yards Over 183.5 Proj. 240 72% Won · 295

Rushing yards Over 51.5 Proj. 104 72% Won · 103

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Won · 25

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Pitt

QB Holden Geriner9/14 · 72 pass yds · 0.2 TD · 0.8 INT 72pass yds

RB Damon Ferguson Jr.11 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Cataurus Hicks3 rec · 48 yds · 0.4 TD 48rec yds

WR/TE Carson Kent3 rec · 29 yds · 0.1 TD 29rec yds

Boston College

QB Mason McKenzie20/31 · 240 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.9 INT 240pass yds

RB Evan Dickens9 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec 32rush yds

WR/TE Javarius Green4 rec · 42 yds · 0.0 TD 42rec yds

WR/TE Jaedn Skeete3 rec · 28 yds · 0.0 TD 28rec yds

Road form. Pitt is 1-0 on the road this season, winning by 2.0 points a game.

Home form. Boston College is 2-1 at home, scoring 21.3 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 45.5 and is now 42.5.

Rest. Pitt comes in on 7 days’ rest, Boston College on 14.

Tale of the tape

PittsburghBoston College

5-1Record2-3

1-0 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L1StreakL2

7 daysRest14 days

34.8Points per game19.0

14.7Points allowed23.4

+121 Point differentialseason to date −22

300Passing yards / game193

160Rushing yards / game153

46%3rd-down conversion32%

9Takeaways8

0Sacks0

4Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Pitt’s road games with Boston College’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.