Moneyline
PSU MLodds down +106
Won 55%
Penn State wins the game.
Confidence55%
Model51.5%
SportsbooksOdds44.1%
Edge+7.4
Penn State vs Washington prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSU | 7 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| WASH | 3 | 3 | 11 | 8 | 25 |
PENN STATE 52%
Pre-game win chance
48% WASHINGTON
PSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 7:41 PM ET
Penn State vs Washington picks
3 picks · Penn State by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
PSU +7.5odds down −278
Won 77%
Penn State wins, or loses by seven points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model72.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+4.1
Total
Over 37.5odds down −303
Won 74%
The two teams score 38 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model75.2%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+7.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Penn State0140141428
Washington014071421
Most likely final scoresPSU 28–21 WASH 0.7%PSU 24–21 WASH 0.5%PSU 31–28 WASH 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Penn StateWashington
Offense
362▲ 414
Total yards
▼ 306343
223▲ 240
Passing yards
▼ 172212
139▲ 174
Rushing yards
▲ 134131
20▲ 21
First downs
▼ 1518
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 2
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
2▼ 0
Field goals made
▲ 30
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▼ 40
Penalty yards
▼ 3252
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 288.5
Proj. 362
72%
Won · 414
Passing yards
Over 165.5
Proj. 222
72%
Won · 240
Rushing yards
Over 87.5
Proj. 139
72%
Won · 174
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 270.5
Proj. 343
72%
Won · 306
Passing yards
Over 155.5
Proj. 212
72%
Won · 172
Rushing yards
Over 78.5
Proj. 131
72%
Won · 134
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Penn State
QB
Rocco Becht19/30 · 211 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT
211pass yds
RB
Carson Hansen10 carries · 39 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec
39rush yds
WR/TE
Chase Sowell5 rec · 79 yds · 0.8 TD
79rec yds
WR/TE
Andrew Rappleyea5 rec · 36 yds · 1.0 TD
36rec yds
Washington
QB
Elijah Brown11/18 · 120 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.7 INT
120pass yds
RB
Brian Bonner Jr.11 carries · 65 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec
65rush yds
WR/TE
Dezmen Roebuck5 rec · 55 yds · 0.4 TD
55rec yds
WR/TE
Chris Lawson4 rec · 49 yds · 0.3 TD
49rec yds
Road form. Penn State is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 2.0 points a game.
Home form. Washington is 3-2 at home, scoring 27.2 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at WASH +1.5 and is now WASH −2.5, a 4-point move toward Washington.
Rest. Penn State comes in on 7 days’ rest, Washington on 8.
Tale of the tape
Penn StateWashington
Penn StateWashington
4-4Record5-3
1-2 roadRoad / home3-2 home
W1StreakW2
7 daysRest8 days
29.0Points per game26.5
18.6Points allowed21.1
+83
Point differentialseason to date
+43
245Passing yards / game247
148Rushing yards / game91
36%3rd-down conversion33%
13Takeaways11
0Sacks0
7Turnovers9
259Passing yards / game295
87Rushing yards / game85
39%3rd-down conversion35%
4Takeaways8
0Sacks0
5Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Penn State’s road games with Washington’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Penn State
4-4
LLLLW
Wk 9Oct 31vs PUR
Purdue17Penn State31
Purdue moneyline +330Penn State moneyline −500
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ MICH
Penn State18Michigan21
Penn State moneyline +190Michigan moneyline −233
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs USC
USC31Penn State23
USC moneyline −116Penn State moneyline −116
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2@ NU
Penn State13Northwestern34
Penn State moneyline −154Northwestern moneyline +120
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs WIS
Wisconsin24Penn State20
Wisconsin moneyline +315Penn State moneyline −476
LFINAL
Washington
5-3
LLLWW
Wk 9Oct 30@ NEB
Washington17Nebraska10
Washington moneyline +260Nebraska moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 16@ PUR
Washington38Purdue26
Washington moneyline +133Purdue moneyline −167
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 9vs IOWA
Iowa41Washington24
Iowa moneyline +135Washington moneyline −167
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ USC
Washington21USC25
Washington moneyline +215USC moneyline −303
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs MINN
Minnesota27Washington24
Minnesota moneyline +345Washington moneyline −526
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig Ten
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (PSU)+108+108
Moneyline (WASH)−133−133
Spread (WASH)+1.5down −2.5
Total44.5up 45.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Penn State beat Washington 28–25 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Penn State at +108 and Washington at −133.
Our model predicted a final score of Penn State 28, Washington 21. Its picks: Penn State to win (+106), won; Penn State +7.5 (−278), won; over 37.5 points (−303), won. The best pick was Penn State +7.5, at 77% confidence.