Penn State vs Michigan Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
PSU	3	0	0	15	18
MICH	0	0	14	7	21

Penn State vs Michigan picks

3 picks · Michigan by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

MICH MLodds up −244 Won 57%

Michigan wins the game.

Confidence57%

Model52.1% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−17.1

SpreadBest pick

PSU +13.5−256 Won 79%

Penn State wins, or loses by 13 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model77.9% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+9.0

Total

Over 36.5odds up −250 Won 74%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model73.2% SportsbooksOdds68.6% Edge+4.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Penn State014701421

Michigan014771428

Most likely final scoresPSU 21–28 MICH 0.7%PSU 21–24 MICH 0.6%PSU 17–20 MICH 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Penn StateMichigan

Offense

322▲ 332 Total yards ▼ 301347

201▲ 267 Passing yards ▼ 90181

121▼ 65 Rushing yards ▲ 211166

18▲ 22 First downs ▼ 1519

Scoring

2= 2 Touchdowns = 33

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 01

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

2▼ 1 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

0▲ 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

45▲ 53 Penalty yards ▲ 6351

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 249.5 Proj. 322 72% Won · 332

Passing yards Over 143.5 Proj. 201 72% Won · 267

Rushing yards Over 69.5 Proj. 122 72% Lost · 65

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Won · 22

Total yards Over 273.5 Proj. 347 72% Won · 301

Passing yards Over 124.5 Proj. 181 72% Lost · 90

Rushing yards Over 113.5 Proj. 166 72% Won · 211

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70% Lost · 15

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Penn State

QB Rocco Becht16/26 · 186 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 186pass yds

RB James Peoples8 carries · 33 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec 33rush yds

WR/TE Chase Sowell4 rec · 48 yds · 0.2 TD 48rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Rappleyea3 rec · 21 yds · 0.2 TD 21rec yds

Michigan

QB Bryce Underwood15/25 · 176 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT 176pass yds

RB Jordan Marshall11 carries · 60 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 60rush yds

WR/TE JJ Buchanan5 rec · 89 yds · 0.7 TD 89rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Marsh5 rec · 54 yds · 0.2 TD 54rec yds

Road form. Penn State is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 1.5 points a game.

Home form. Michigan is 3-1 at home, scoring 25.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MICH −5.5 and is now MICH −6.5, a 1-point move toward Michigan.

Rest. Penn State comes in on 7 days’ rest, Michigan on 14.

Streak. Penn State has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Penn StateMichigan

3-3Record3-2

1-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L3StreakL2

7 daysRest14 days

30.5Points per game23.0

18.5Points allowed15.8

+72 Point differentialseason to date +36

251Passing yards / game181

142Rushing yards / game135

37%3rd-down conversion41%

9Takeaways5

0Sacks0

4Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Penn State’s road games with Michigan’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.