Moneyline
DET MLodds up −159
54%
The Lions win the game.
Confidence54%
Model52.4%
SportsbooksOdds59.1%
Edge−6.7
New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions prediction, picks and odds
Updated 1:48 PM ET
Patriots vs Lions picks
3 picks · Lions by 3 · 37 pointsSpreadBest pick
NE +7.5odds up −278
78%
The Patriots win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model74.2%
SportsbooksOdds71.0%
Edge+3.2
Total
Under 57.5−250
77%
The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model72.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+4.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Patriots00107017
Lions0100101020
Most likely final scoresNE 17–20 DET 0.8%NE 20–23 DET 0.8%NE 24–27 DET 0.8%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
PatriotsLions
Offense
356
Total yards
353
248
Passing yards
240
108
Rushing yards
113
20
First downs
20
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
2
1
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
1
1
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
3
Sacks allowed
3
53
Penalty yards
52
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 309.5
Proj. 356
72%
Passing yards
Over 206.5
Proj. 248
72%
Rushing yards
Over 79.5
Proj. 108
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
72%
Total yards
Over 306.5
Proj. 353
72%
Passing yards
Over 199.5
Proj. 241
72%
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 113
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
73%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Patriots
QB
Drake Maye22/33 · 248 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
248pass yds
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson11 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
41rush yds
WR/TE
Hunter Henry4 rec · 44 yds · 0.1 TD
44rec yds
WR/TE
Efton Chism III3 rec · 30 yds · 0.1 TD
30rec yds
Lions
QB
Jared Goff22/32 · 240 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
240pass yds
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs20 carries · 91 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 4 rec
91rush yds
WR/TE
Amon-Ra St. Brown7 rec · 71 yds · 0.1 TD
71rec yds
WR/TE
Jameson Williams4 rec · 62 yds · 0.6 TD
62rec yds
Road form. The Patriots are 2-3 on the road this season, losing by 6.0 points a game.
Home form. The Lions are 4-0 at home, scoring 25.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at DET +1.5 and is now DET −2.5, a 4-point move toward the Lions.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. The Lions have won 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
New England PatriotsDetroit Lions
New England PatriotsDetroit Lions
5-4Record6-2
2-3 roadRoad / home4-0 home
L1StreakW4
7 daysRest7 days
23.4Points per game27.8
23.0Points allowed23.6
2nd AFC EastDivision2nd NFC North
+4
Point differentialseason to date
+33
6.0Yards per play5.8
250Passing yards / game252
120Rushing yards / game128
40%3rd-down conversion37%
58%Red-zone touchdowns62%
8Takeaways8
25Sacks27
19Turnovers5
5.5Yards per play5.7
231Passing yards / game226
107Rushing yards / game161
36%3rd-down conversion43%
50%Red-zone touchdowns61%
4Takeaways6
12Sacks14
10Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Patriots’ road games with the Lions’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Patriots
5-4
WWLWL
Wk 9Nov 8vs GB
Packers45Patriots27
Packers moneyline +153Patriots moneyline −182
LFINAL
Wk 8Nov 1@ MIA
Patriots24Dolphins19
Patriots moneyline −370Dolphins moneyline +275
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 22@ CHI
Patriots24Bears30
Patriots moneyline +134Bears moneyline −159
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18vs NYJ
Jets19Patriots26
Jets moneyline +280Patriots moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs LV
Raiders17Patriots45
Raiders moneyline +148Patriots moneyline −185
WFINAL
Lions
6-2
LWWWW
Wk 9Nov 8@ MIA
Lions19Dolphins9
Lions moneyline −333Dolphins moneyline +255
WFINAL
Wk 8Nov 1vs MIN
Vikings15Lions19
Vikings moneyline +154Lions moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs GB
Packers17Lions20
Packers moneyline +175Lions moneyline −208
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ ARI
Lions45Cardinals21
Lions moneyline −250Cardinals moneyline +191
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CAR
Lions26Panthers32
Lions moneyline −222Panthers moneyline +180
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · after Week 9Teams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
PATRIOTS
1
Wins
Avg. points29.0 – 0.0
Avg. total29.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
LIONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2022 · Wk 5Gillette Stadium
Lions0Patriots29
Lions moneyline +130Patriots moneyline −154
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NE)+130+130
Moneyline (DET)−161−161
Spread (DET)+1.5down −2.5
Total49.5up 50.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Injury report
The teams’ current reports: out, doubtful and questionable firstPatriots
INACTIVE
A.J. BrownWR
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Green Bay
INACTIVE
Behren MortonQB
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Charles WoodsCB
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Green Bay
INACTIVE
Dametrious CrownoverOT
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
TreVeyon HendersonRB
Inactive for Week 9 vs. Green Bay
QUESTIONABLE
Ben Brown
Knee
QUESTIONABLE
Brenden SchoolerS
Hamstring
QUESTIONABLE
Carlton Davis IIICB
Knee
QUESTIONABLE
Rhamondre StevensonRB
Knee
QUESTIONABLE
Will Campbell
Knee
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 11
IRGreg Van RotenHamstring
IRDell PettusSAnkle
IRKhalil JacobsLBUndisclosed
IRMike OnwenuAnkle
IRQuintayvious HutchinsLBKnee
IRReggie GilliamFBAnkle
IRAlijah Vera-TuckerHamstring
IRRomeo DoubsWRShoulder
IRJulian HillKnee
IRMyles MontgomeryUndisclosed
PUPHarold Landry IIIUndisclosed
Lions
INACTIVE
Ahmed HassaneinDE
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Cade Mays
Inactive for Week 9 at Miami
INACTIVE
D.J. ReedCB
Inactive for Week 9 at Miami
NFI
Giovanni Manu
Knee
INACTIVE
Jackson MeeksWR
Coach's Decision
INACTIVE
Jacob SaylorsRB
Inactive for Week 9 at Miami
INACTIVE
Mekhi WingoDT
Coach's Decision
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 12
IRThomas HarperSAnkle
IRJack CampbellLBNeck
IRJimmy RolderLBHamstring
IRIsiah PachecoBack
IRBen BartchGFoot
IRDevin WhiteLBForearm
IRTom KennedyWRKnee - MCL
IRAvonte MaddoxCBFoot
IRDamone ClarkUndisclosed
IRKendrick LawKnee - ACL
IRPayton TurnerBack
PUPKerby JosephKnee
The New England Patriots visit the Detroit Lions in NFL Week 10 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 15 at 9:30 AM ET, at FC Bayern Munich Stadium (neutral site). The Patriots come in at 5-4 and the Lions at 6-2. The moneyline has the Patriots at +130 and the Lions at −161.
Our model predicts a final score of Patriots 17, Lions 20. Its picks: the Lions to win (−159); the Patriots +7.5 (−278); under 57.5 points (−250). The best pick is the Patriots +7.5, at 78% confidence.