Moneyline
CHI ML−161
Won 63%
The Bears win the game.
Confidence63%
Model56.6%
SportsbooksOdds59.6%
Edge−3.0
New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 22, 11:39 PM ET
Patriots vs Bears picks
3 picks · Bears by 3 · 37 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
CHI +3.5odds down −323
Won 78%
The Bears win, or lose by three points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model69.2%
SportsbooksOdds72.8%
Edge−3.6
Total
Under 57.5−263
Won 77%
The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model74.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.5%
Edge+4.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Patriots37071017
Bears013071320
Most likely final scoresNE 17–20 CHI 1.0%NE 20–23 CHI 0.9%NE 24–27 CHI 0.8%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
PatriotsBears
Offense
339▲ 380
Total yards
▲ 405346
228▲ 310
Passing yards
▲ 289225
111▼ 70
Rushing yards
▼ 116121
18▲ 20
First downs
= 2121
Scoring
2▲ 3
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1= 1
Field goals made
▲ 32
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
2= 2
Sacks allowed
▲ 32
51▲ 71
Penalty yards
▲ 6952
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 292.5
Proj. 339
72%
Won · 380
Passing yards
Over 186.5
Proj. 228
72%
Won · 310
Rushing yards
Over 82.5
Proj. 111
72%
Lost · 70
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 18
71%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 299.5
Proj. 346
72%
Won · 405
Passing yards
Over 183.5
Proj. 225
72%
Won · 289
Rushing yards
Over 92.5
Proj. 121
72%
Won · 116
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
75%
Won · 21
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Patriots
QB
Drake Maye18/30 · 228 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
228pass yds
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson10 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
37rush yds
WR/TE
Demario Douglas3 rec · 36 yds · 0.3 TD
36rec yds
WR/TE
Hunter Henry3 rec · 35 yds · 0.2 TD
35rec yds
Bears
QB
Caleb Williams21/31 · 225 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
225pass yds
RB
D'Andre Swift13 carries · 50 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 3 rec
50rush yds
WR/TE
Luther Burden III5 rec · 59 yds · 0.2 TD
59rec yds
WR/TE
Colston Loveland3 rec · 29 yds · 0.2 TD
29rec yds
Road form. The Patriots are 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 9.7 points a game.
Home form. The Bears are 2-1 at home, scoring 17.7 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at CHI −1.5 and is now CHI −2.5, a 1-point move toward the Bears.
Rest. Both teams come in on 4 days’ rest.
Streak. The Patriots have won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
New England PatriotsChicago Bears
New England PatriotsChicago Bears
4-2Record4-2
1-2 roadRoad / home2-1 home
W3StreakW1
4 daysRest4 days
22.7Points per game25.0
18.8Points allowed19.8
+23
Point differentialseason to date
+31
5.8Yards per play5.3
244Passing yards / game228
131Rushing yards / game161
41%3rd-down conversion45%
56%Red-zone touchdowns50%
7Takeaways9
14Sacks17
13Turnovers11
5.0Yards per play5.1
221Passing yards / game223
112Rushing yards / game165
35%3rd-down conversion40%
50%Red-zone touchdowns27%
3Takeaways3
4Sacks8
8Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Patriots’ road games with the Bears’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Patriots
4-2
WLWWW
Wk 6Oct 18vs NYJ
Jets19Patriots26
Jets moneyline +280Patriots moneyline −357
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs LV
Raiders17Patriots45
Raiders moneyline +148Patriots moneyline −185
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ BUF
Patriots29Bills26
Patriots moneyline +260Bills moneyline −333
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27@ JAX
Patriots6Jaguars35
Patriots moneyline +132Jaguars moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs PIT
Steelers3Patriots20
Steelers moneyline +185Patriots moneyline −238
WFINAL
Bears
4-2
LWWLW
Wk 6Oct 18@ ATL
Bears31Falcons23
Bears moneyline −118Falcons moneyline −103
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11@ GB
Bears7Packers31
Bears moneyline −122Packers moneyline +100
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs NYJ
Jets12Bears23
Jets moneyline +155Bears moneyline −192
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 28vs PHI
Eagles7Bears27
Eagles moneyline −200Bears moneyline +162
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20vs MIN
Vikings9Bears3
Vikings moneyline +175Bears moneyline −222
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this gameAFC East
Head-to-head
Last two meetings · regular season and playoffs
PATRIOTS
1
Wins
Avg. points16.5 – 18.0
Avg. total34.5 pts
Over closing total1 of 2
1
BEARS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2024 · Wk 10Soldier Field
Patriots19Bears3
Patriots moneyline +230Bears moneyline −313
2022 · Wk 7Gillette Stadium
Bears33Patriots14
Bears moneyline +310Patriots moneyline −400
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NE)+134+134
Moneyline (CHI)−159−159
Spread (CHI)−1.5down −2.5
Total49.5up 51
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Chicago Bears beat the New England Patriots 30–24 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season (Thursday Night Football on Prime Video), on Thursday, October 22 at 8:15 PM ET, at Soldier Field, Chicago. The moneyline had the Patriots at +134 and the Bears at −159.
Our model predicted a final score of Patriots 17, Bears 20. Its picks: the Bears to win (−161), won; the Bears +3.5 (−323), won; under 57.5 points (−263), won. The best pick was the Bears +3.5, at 78% confidence.