The Panthers win, or lose by five points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model67.2%SportsbooksOdds67.2%Edge0.0
Total
Under 54.5▴odds up −22777%
The two teams score 54 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model72.6%SportsbooksOdds67.2%Edge+5.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarterThe model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
CARPanthers37071017
NOSaints0100101020
Most likely final scoresCAR 17–20 NO 0.8%CAR 20–23 NO 0.8%CAR 24–27 NO 0.7%
Projected box scoreModel onlyBuilt from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
CARPanthersSaintsNO
Offense
346Total yards327
235Passing yards218
111Rushing yards109
20First downs20
Scoring
2Touchdowns2
1Passing touchdowns1
1Rushing touchdowns1
1Field goals made2
Ball security
1Turnovers1
1Interceptions thrown1
1Fumbles lost1
3Sacks allowed2
56Penalty yards51
Team stat picksThe model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
CARTotal yardsOver 299.5Proj. 34672%
CARPassing yardsOver 193.5Proj. 23572%
CARRushing yardsOver 82.5Proj. 11172%
CARFirst downsOver 17.5Proj. 2070%
NOTotal yardsOver 280.5Proj. 32772%
NOPassing yardsOver 175.5Proj. 21772%
NORushing yardsOver 80.5Proj. 10972%
NOFirst downsOver 17.5Proj. 2073%
Key playersProjected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Road form.The Panthers are 2-2 on the road this season, winning by 7.8 points a game.
Home form.The Saints are 1-4 at home, scoring 19.4 points a game there.
Line move.The spread opened at NO +1.5 and is now NO −2.5, a 4-point move toward the Saints.
Rest.Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Division game.Two NFC South rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
CARCarolina PanthersNONew Orleans Saints
CARCarolina PanthersNONew Orleans Saints
3-5Record3-5
2-2 roadRoad / home1-4 home
L3StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
24.9Points per game23.1
27.4Points allowed27.0
1st NFC SouthDivision2nd NFC South
−20Point differentialseason to date−31
5.5Yards per play4.9
261Passing yards / game231
101Rushing yards / game95
38%3rd-down conversion43%
66%Red-zone touchdowns70%
11Takeaways9
12Sacks23
12Turnovers15
4.9Yards per play4.9
246Passing yards / game218
94Rushing yards / game86
34%3rd-down conversion44%
53%Red-zone touchdowns65%
9Takeaways3
8Sacks14
3Turnovers11
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Panthers’ road games with the Saints’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
CARPanthers3-5WWLLL
Wk 9Nov 8vs DEN
DENBroncos26CARPanthers21
Broncos moneyline −147Panthers moneyline +120
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 29@ GB
CARPanthers19GBPackers27
Panthers moneyline +165Packers moneyline −200
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 25vs TB
TBBuccaneers43CARPanthers13
Buccaneers moneyline +139Panthers moneyline −164
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ PHI
CARPanthers25PHIEagles14
Panthers moneyline −156Eagles moneyline +132
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4vs DET
DETLions26CARPanthers32
Lions moneyline −222Panthers moneyline +180
WFINAL
NOSaints3-5LLWLW
Wk 9Nov 8vs CLE
CLEBrowns22NOSaints23
Browns moneyline +185Saints moneyline −238
WF/OT
Wk 7Oct 25vs PIT
PITSteelers16NOSaints10
Steelers moneyline −161Saints moneyline +137
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 18@ NYG
NOSaints34NYGGiants27
Saints moneyline −111Giants moneyline −109
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs MIN
MINVikings23NOSaints13
Vikings moneyline −141Saints moneyline +115
LFINAL
Wk 4Oct 5vs ATL
ATLFalcons45NOSaints24
Falcons moneyline −102Saints moneyline −120
LFINAL
Standings
2026 regular season · after Week 9Teams in this game
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 15Caesars Superdome
CARPanthers17NOSaints20
Panthers moneyline −152Saints moneyline +120
2025 · Wk 10Bank of America Stadium
NOSaints17CARPanthers7
Saints moneyline +200Panthers moneyline −250
2024 · Wk 9Bank of America Stadium
NOSaints22CARPanthers23
Saints moneyline −357Panthers moneyline +265
2024 · Wk 1Caesars Superdome
CARPanthers10NOSaints47
Panthers moneyline +155Saints moneyline −204
2023 · Wk 14Caesars Superdome
CARPanthers6NOSaints28
Panthers moneyline +195Saints moneyline −238
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (CAR)+112▾down +108
Moneyline (NO)−139▴up −132
Spread (NO)+1.5▾down −2.5
Total47.5▴up 48.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Injury report
The teams’ current reports: out, doubtful and questionable first
CARPanthers
INACTIVEAJ DillonRBCoach's Decision
INACTIVEDamien LewisInactive for Week 9 vs. Denver
INACTIVEHaynes KingQBCoach's Decision
INACTIVEJaelan PhillipsLBInactive for Week 9 vs. Denver
INACTIVETeRah EdwardsDTCoach's Decision
INACTIVEWill Lee IIICBInactive for Week 9 vs. Denver
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 12
IRJonathon BrooksRBAbdomen
IRXavier LegetteWRKnee
IRBrady ChristensenHamstring
IRAkayleb EvansCBTriceps
IRTaylor MotonLower Leg
IRThomas IncoomLBCalf
IRCam'Ron JacksonDTShoulder
IRChris Brazzell IIKnee
IRJaycee HornCBQuadriceps
IRMike JacksonCBGroin
IRNic CarawayKnee - ACL
PUPIkem EkwonuKnee
NOSaints
INACTIVEChristen MillerDTCoach's Decision
INACTIVECJ DonaldsonRBInactive for Week 9 vs. Cleveland
INACTIVEJaylan FordLBCoach's Decision
INACTIVEMason MurphyCoach's Decision
INACTIVEMike ReidCBCoach's Decision
INACTIVEZach WilsonQBCoach's Decision
QUESTIONABLEErik McCoyBiceps
Reserve lists (IR / PUP) · 7
IRBryan BreseeKnee - ACL
IRDillon RadunzKnee - ACL
IRMoliki MatavaoTEKnee
IRRejzohn WrightHip
IRTy ChandlerRBKnee
PUPMason TiptonLeg
PUPNick SaldiveriKnee
The Carolina Panthers visit the New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 10 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, November 15 at 1:00 PM ET, at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans. The Panthers come in at 3-5 and the Saints at 3-5. The moneyline has the Panthers at +108 and the Saints at −132.
Our model predicts a final score of Panthers 17, Saints 20. Its picks: the Saints to win (−139); the Panthers +5.5 (−192); under 54.5 points (−227). The best pick is the Panthers +5.5, at 78% confidence.