Moneyline
DET MLodds down −204
Won 74%
The Lions win the game.
Confidence74%
Model62.2%
SportsbooksOdds60.5%
Edge+1.7
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 25, 7:43 PM ET
Packers vs Lions picks
3 picks · Lions by 3 · 51 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
GB +7.5odds up −200
Won 78%
The Packers win, or lose by seven points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model65.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge−3.3
Total
Under 59.5odds up −185
Won 77%
The two teams score 59 or fewer points between them.
Confidence77%
Model76.0%
SportsbooksOdds67.8%
Edge+8.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Packers73681024
Lions7100101727
Most likely final scoresGB 24–27 DET 0.8%GB 20–23 DET 0.8%GB 27–30 DET 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line
PackersLions
Offense
346▼ 324
Total yards
▲ 415363
255▲ 264
Passing yards
▲ 296246
91▼ 60
Rushing yards
▲ 119117
20▼ 17
First downs
▲ 2623
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2= 2
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 01
1= 1
Field goals made
= 22
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▲ 21
3▼ 1
Sacks allowed
▼ 12
53▲ 81
Penalty yards
▼ 5052
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 299.5
Proj. 346
72%
Won · 324
Passing yards
Over 214.5
Proj. 256
72%
Won · 264
Rushing yards
Over 62.5
Proj. 91
72%
Lost · 60
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 20
72%
Lost · 17
Total yards
Over 316.5
Proj. 363
72%
Won · 415
Passing yards
Over 204.5
Proj. 246
72%
Won · 296
Rushing yards
Over 88.5
Proj. 117
72%
Won · 119
First downs
Over 19.5
Proj. 23
74%
Won · 26
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Packers
QB
Jordan Love24/37 · 255 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
255pass yds
RB
MarShawn Lloyd9 carries · 31 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec
31rush yds
WR/TE
Matthew Golden5 rec · 79 yds · 0.5 TD
79rec yds
WR/TE
Tucker Kraft4 rec · 39 yds · 0.2 TD
39rec yds
Lions
QB
Jared Goff24/37 · 246 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT
246pass yds
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs22 carries · 103 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 5 rec
103rush yds
WR/TE
Amon-Ra St. Brown7 rec · 65 yds · 0.8 TD
65rec yds
WR/TE
Sam LaPorta5 rec · 56 yds · 0.5 TD
56rec yds
Road form. The Packers are 2-1 on the road this season, losing by 3.7 points a game.
Home form. The Lions are 2-0 at home, scoring 31.0 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 52.5 and is now 55.
Rest. The Packers come in on 7 days’ rest, the Lions on 14.
Division game. Two NFC North rivals who meet twice a season and know each other’s schemes.
Tale of the tape
Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions
Green Bay PackersDetroit Lions
4-2Record3-2
2-1 roadRoad / home2-0 home
W3StreakW1
7 daysRest14 days
21.2Points per game32.8
20.8Points allowed29.6
+2
Point differentialseason to date
+16
5.4Yards per play5.9
269Passing yards / game280
60Rushing yards / game114
36%3rd-down conversion37%
50%Red-zone touchdowns77%
11Takeaways5
15Sacks20
7Turnovers1
5.2Yards per play5.5
229Passing yards / game227
72Rushing yards / game148
19%3rd-down conversion43%
45%Red-zone touchdowns80%
3Takeaways4
10Sacks10
5Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares the Packers’ road games with the Lions’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Packers
4-2
WLWWW
Wk 6Oct 18vs DAL
Cowboys13Packers23
Cowboys moneyline −115Packers moneyline −105
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 11vs CHI
Bears7Packers31
Bears moneyline −122Packers moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ TB
Packers17Buccaneers14
Packers moneyline −156Buccaneers moneyline +130
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 24vs ATL
Falcons35Packers14
Falcons moneyline +205Packers moneyline −263
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 20@ NYJ
Packers20Jets17
Packers moneyline −182Jets moneyline +147
WF/OT
Lions
3-2
WLWLW
Wk 5Oct 11@ ARI
Lions45Cardinals21
Lions moneyline −250Cardinals moneyline +191
WFINAL
Wk 4Oct 4@ CAR
Lions26Panthers32
Lions moneyline −222Panthers moneyline +180
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 27vs NYJ
Jets24Lions31
Jets moneyline +240Lions moneyline −323
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 17@ BUF
Lions31Bills41
Lions moneyline +190Bills moneyline −244
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 13vs NO
Saints30Lions31
Saints moneyline +255Lions moneyline −323
WF/OT
Standings
2026 regular season · standings todayTeams in this game
Head-to-head
Last five meetings · regular season and playoffs
PACKERS
3
Wins
Avg. points26.4 – 23.4
Avg. total49.8 pts
Over closing total3 of 5
2
LIONS
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 13Ford Field
Packers31Lions24
Packers moneyline +130Lions moneyline −159
2025 · Wk 1Lambeau Field
Lions13Packers27
Lions moneyline +100Packers moneyline −120
2024 · Wk 14Ford Field
Packers31Lions34
Packers moneyline +145Lions moneyline −182
2024 · Wk 9Lambeau Field
Lions24Packers14
Lions moneyline −147Packers moneyline +113
2023 · Wk 12Ford Field
Packers29Lions22
Packers moneyline +320Lions moneyline −455
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (GB)+163up +175
Moneyline (DET)−196down −208
Spread (DET)−3.5−3.5
Total52.5up 55
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
The Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers 20–17 in NFL Week 7 of the 2026 season, on Sunday, October 25 at 4:25 PM ET, at Ford Field, Detroit. The moneyline had the Packers at +175 and the Lions at −208.
Our model predicted a final score of Packers 24, Lions 27. Its picks: the Lions to win (−204), won; the Packers +7.5 (−200), won; under 59.5 points (−185), won. The best pick was the Packers +7.5, at 78% confidence.