Oregon vs Ohio State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ORE	0	17	14	10	41
OSU	14	0	0	14	28

Oregon vs Ohio State picks

3 picks · Ohio State by 7 · 63 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

OSU MLodds down −345 Lost 88%

Ohio State wins the game.

Confidence88%

Model65.1% SportsbooksOdds72.2% Edge−7.1

SpreadBest pick

ORE +14.5odds up −222 Won 77%

Oregon wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model70.7% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+2.6

Total

Over 41.5odds up −172 Won 74%

The two teams score 42 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model70.6% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge+3.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Oregon770141428

Ohio State7140142135

Most likely final scoresORE 28–35 OSU 0.6%ORE 14–28 OSU 0.6%ORE 21–24 OSU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

OregonOhio State

Offense

339▲ 395 Total yards ▲ 413404

224▲ 287 Passing yards ▲ 360251

115▼ 108 Rushing yards ▼ 53153

17▲ 22 First downs ▲ 2321

Scoring

3▲ 5 Touchdowns = 44

2= 2 Passing touchdowns = 22

1▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 22

2= 2 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

47▼ 32 Penalty yards ▼ 4050

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 266.5 Proj. 339 72% Won · 395

Passing yards Over 166.5 Proj. 224 72% Won · 287

Rushing yards Over 62.5 Proj. 115 72% Won · 108

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 73% Won · 22

Total yards Over 331.5 Proj. 404 72% Won · 413

Passing yards Over 194.5 Proj. 251 72% Won · 360

Rushing yards Over 100.5 Proj. 153 72% Lost · 53

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71% Won · 23

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Oregon

QB Dylan Raiola13/21 · 143 pass yds · 1.3 TD · 0.4 INT 143pass yds

RB Dierre Hill Jr.9 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 37rush yds

WR/TE Dakorien Moore4 rec · 53 yds · 0.6 TD 53rec yds

WR/TE Jamari Johnson4 rec · 48 yds · 0.6 TD 48rec yds

Ohio State

QB Luke Fahey8/14 · 115 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.2 INT 115pass yds

RB Bo Jackson15 carries · 78 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 78rush yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Smith7 rec · 104 yds · 1.2 TD 104rec yds

WR/TE Mason Williams2 rec · 30 yds · 0.3 TD 30rec yds

Road form. Oregon is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 1.7 points a game.

Home form. Ohio State is 4-0 at home, scoring 50.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at OSU −12.5 and is now OSU −7.5, a 5-point move toward Oregon.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

OregonOhio State

5-3Record6-2

1-2 roadRoad / home4-0 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

33.3Points per game36.6

21.4Points allowed15.5

+95 Point differentialseason to date +169

285Passing yards / game315

138Rushing yards / game160

36%3rd-down conversion44%

12Takeaways11

0Sacks0

13Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oregon’s road games with Ohio State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.