Oregon vs Illinois Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ORE	7	3	0	0	10
ILL	0	7	7	7	21

Oregon vs Illinois picks

3 picks · Oregon by 3 · 59 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

ORE MLodds down −455 Lost 93%

Oregon wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model67.8% SportsbooksOdds76.3% Edge−8.5

SpreadBest pick

ILL +17.5odds up −227 Won 77%

Illinois wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model72.6% SportsbooksOdds71.0% Edge+1.6

Total

Over 43.5odds up −222 Lost 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model74.9% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+6.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Oregon771431431

Illinois0140141428

Most likely final scoresORE 31–28 ILL 0.6%ORE 28–21 ILL 0.5%ORE 27–24 ILL 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

OregonIllinois

Offense

382▲ 426 Total yards ▼ 314352

251▼ 246 Passing yards ▼ 89225

131▲ 180 Rushing yards ▲ 225127

20▲ 21 First downs ▼ 1520

Scoring

4▼ 1 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 0 Passing touchdowns = 22

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns = 11

1= 1 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

57▼ 30 Penalty yards ▼ 3247

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 308.5 Proj. 382 72% Won · 426

Passing yards Over 194.5 Proj. 251 72% Won · 246

Rushing yards Over 78.5 Proj. 131 72% Won · 180

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 21

Total yards Over 278.5 Proj. 352 72% Won · 314

Passing yards Over 167.5 Proj. 225 72% Lost · 89

Rushing yards Over 74.5 Proj. 127 72% Won · 225

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Lost · 15

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Oregon

QB Brock Thomas7/12 · 75 pass yds · 0.2 TD · 0.2 INT 75pass yds

RB Jordon Davison12 carries · 52 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 1 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Jamari Johnson4 rec · 53 yds · 0.6 TD 53rec yds

WR/TE Dakorien Moore4 rec · 51 yds · 0.5 TD 51rec yds

Illinois

QB Katin Houser18/31 · 212 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.8 INT 212pass yds

RB Aidan Laughery11 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 1 rec 55rush yds

WR/TE Collin Dixon7 rec · 89 yds · 1.3 TD 89rec yds

WR/TE Hudson Clement4 rec · 59 yds · 0.1 TD 59rec yds

Road form. Oregon is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 3.0 points a game.

Home form. Illinois is 2-2 at home, scoring 33.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ILL +12.5 and is now ILL +10.5, a 2-point move toward Illinois.

Rest. Oregon comes in on 7 days’ rest, Illinois on 14.

Tale of the tape

OregonIllinois

4-2Record3-3

1-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home

W1StreakW1

7 daysRest14 days

37.0Points per game31.8

20.7Points allowed27.8

+98 Point differentialseason to date +24

283Passing yards / game255

137Rushing yards / game151

37%3rd-down conversion45%

11Takeaways3

0Sacks0

11Turnovers4

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oregon’s road games with Illinois’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.