Moneyline
KSU MLodds up +200
Lost 61%
Kansas St wins the game.
Confidence61%
Model53.4%
SportsbooksOdds36.1%
Edge+17.3
Oklahoma State vs Kansas State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKST | 28 | 21 | 14 | 3 | 66 |
| KSU | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |
OKLAHOMA ST 44%
Pre-game win chance
56% KANSAS ST
KSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Nov 7, 4:44 PM ET
Oklahoma St vs Kansas St picks
3 picks · Kansas St by 7 · 49 points · 0 of 3 wonSpread
KSU +10.5odds up −167
Lost 83%
Kansas St wins, or loses by 10 points or fewer.
Confidence83%
Model74.8%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+6.7
TotalBest pick
Under 70.5odds up −227
Lost 84%
The two teams score 70 or fewer points between them.
Confidence84%
Model78.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+9.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Oklahoma St77071421
Kansas St70714728
Most likely final scoresOKST 21–28 KSU 0.6%OKST 24–27 KSU 0.6%OKST 31–34 KSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Oklahoma StKansas St
Offense
401▲ 565
Total yards
▼ 327414
233▲ 342
Passing yards
▼ 200234
168▲ 223
Rushing yards
▼ 127180
21▲ 26
First downs
▼ 1621
Scoring
3▲ 9
Touchdowns
= 44
2▲ 5
Passing touchdowns
= 22
1▲ 4
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 31
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▲ 31
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
50▼ 40
Penalty yards
▲ 5549
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 328.5
Proj. 402
72%
Won · 565
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 233
72%
Won · 342
Rushing yards
Over 115.5
Proj. 168
72%
Won · 223
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 21
74%
Won · 26
Total yards
Over 340.5
Proj. 414
72%
Lost · 327
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 234
72%
Won · 200
Rushing yards
Over 127.5
Proj. 180
72%
Lost · 127
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
70%
Lost · 16
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Oklahoma St
QB
Drew Mestemaker17/29 · 227 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT
227pass yds
RB
Caleb Hawkins21 carries · 104 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
104rush yds
WR/TE
Justin Bowick4 rec · 68 yds · 0.7 TD
68rec yds
WR/TE
Wyatt Young4 rec · 55 yds · 0.6 TD
55rec yds
Kansas St
QB
Blake Barnett19/29 · 232 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.0 INT
232pass yds
RB
Joe Jackson12 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 3 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Jaron Tibbs5 rec · 58 yds · 0.8 TD
58rec yds
WR/TE
Joshua Manning4 rec · 42 yds · 0.3 TD
42rec yds
Road form. Oklahoma St is 1-3 on the road this season.
Home form. Kansas St is 4-1 at home, scoring 37.4 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at KSU +5.5 and is now KSU +7.5, a 2-point move toward Oklahoma St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Oklahoma StateKansas State
Oklahoma StateKansas State
5-3Record4-4
1-3 roadRoad / home4-1 home
L1StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
41.1Points per game31.8
27.1Points allowed21.9
+112
Point differentialseason to date
+79
339Passing yards / game221
191Rushing yards / game206
40%3rd-down conversion53%
11Takeaways5
0Sacks0
13Turnovers6
330Passing yards / game211
173Rushing yards / game257
39%3rd-down conversion59%
4Takeaways3
0Sacks0
9Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oklahoma St’s road games with Kansas St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Oklahoma St
5-3
WWLWL
Wk 9Oct 31@ ISU
Oklahoma St49Iowa State51
Oklahoma St moneyline −435Iowa State moneyline +300
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs COLO
Colorado24Oklahoma St57
Colorado moneyline +425Oklahoma St moneyline −714
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ HOU
Oklahoma St32Houston35
Oklahoma St moneyline +150Houston moneyline −182
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs UCF
UCF28Oklahoma St42
UCF moneyline +340Oklahoma St moneyline −476
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ WVU
Oklahoma St41West Virginia24
Oklahoma St moneyline +104West Virginia moneyline −132
WFINAL
Kansas St
4-4
LLWLL
Wk 9Oct 31@ COLO
Kansas St24Colorado27
Kansas St moneyline +134Colorado moneyline −179
LF/OT
Wk 8Oct 24@ ASU
Kansas St17Arizona St28
Kansas St moneyline −123Arizona St moneyline −108
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs KU
Kansas24Kansas St35
Kansas moneyline +128Kansas St moneyline −159
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs HOU
Houston35Kansas St16
Houston moneyline +108Kansas St moneyline −147
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ CIN
Kansas St26Cincinnati31
Kansas St moneyline −250Cincinnati moneyline +182
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
OKLAHOMA ST
0
Wins
Avg. points6.0 – 14.0
Avg. total20.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
KANSAS ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 12Oklahoma St home
Kansas St14Oklahoma St6
Kansas St moneyline −1429Oklahoma St moneyline +680
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (OKST)−263up −250
Moneyline (KSU)+205down +200
Spread (KSU)+5.5up +7.5
Total61.5up 63.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Oklahoma State beat Kansas State 66–28 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 1:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Oklahoma State at −250 and Kansas State at +200.
Our model predicted a final score of Oklahoma St 21, Kansas St 28. Its picks: Kansas State to win (+200), lost; Kansas State +10.5 (−167), lost; under 70.5 points (−227), lost. The best pick was under 70.5 points, at 84% confidence.