Oklahoma State vs Iowa State Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OKST	14	7	7	21	49
ISU	7	17	14	13	51

Oklahoma St vs Iowa State picks

3 picks · Iowa State by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

ISU MLodds down +270 Won 53%

Iowa State wins the game.

Confidence53%

Model50.6% SportsbooksOdds22.1% Edge+28.5

Spread

ISU +18.5−263 Won 75%

Iowa State wins, or loses by 18 points or fewer.

Confidence75%

Model62.0% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge−7.3

TotalBest pick

Under 64.5odds up −213 Lost 82%

The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.

Confidence82%

Model76.8% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+9.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Oklahoma St0777721

Iowa State77771428

Most likely final scoresOKST 21–28 ISU 0.6%OKST 28–31 ISU 0.6%OKST 24–27 ISU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Oklahoma StIowa State

Offense

418▲ 533 Total yards ▲ 581377

267▲ 323 Passing yards ▲ 309219

151▲ 210 Rushing yards ▲ 272158

20▲ 27 First downs ▲ 2420

Scoring

3▲ 7 Touchdowns ▲ 63

2▲ 5 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1▲ 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 31

0= 0 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

54▼ 25 Penalty yards ▲ 6251

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 345.5 Proj. 418 72% Won · 533

Passing yards Over 210.5 Proj. 267 72% Won · 323

Rushing yards Over 98.5 Proj. 151 72% Won · 210

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 27

Total yards Over 304.5 Proj. 377 72% Won · 581

Passing yards Over 162.5 Proj. 219 72% Won · 309

Rushing yards Over 105.5 Proj. 158 72% Won · 272

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Oklahoma St

QB Drew Mestemaker20/30 · 260 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT 260pass yds

RB Caleb Hawkins19 carries · 80 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 3 rec 80rush yds

WR/TE Justin Bowick5 rec · 73 yds · 0.6 TD 73rec yds

WR/TE Wyatt Young4 rec · 69 yds · 0.6 TD 69rec yds

Iowa State

QB Connor Moberly5/11 · 51 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.0 INT 51pass yds

RB Aiden Flora16 carries · 102 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 3 rec 102rush yds

WR/TE Omari Hayes3 rec · 38 yds · 0.3 TD 38rec yds

WR/TE Tyler Claiborne2 rec · 26 yds · 0.0 TD 26rec yds

Road form. Oklahoma St is 1-2 on the road this season.

Home form. Iowa State is 3-1 at home, scoring 38.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ISU +9.5 and is now ISU +10.5, a 1-point move toward Oklahoma St.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

Oklahoma StateIowa State

5-2Record3-4

1-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W1StreakL2

7 daysRest7 days

40.0Points per game25.9

23.7Points allowed24.1

+114 Point differentialseason to date +12

341Passing yards / game177

188Rushing yards / game164

36%3rd-down conversion30%

10Takeaways8

0Sacks0

11Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oklahoma St’s road games with Iowa State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.