Oklahoma State vs Houston Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OKST	3	0	14	15	32
HOU	7	7	14	7	35

Oklahoma St vs Houston picks

3 picks · Houston by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

HOU MLodds up −189 Won 94%

Houston wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model75.6% SportsbooksOdds64.3% Edge+11.3

Spread

HOU +2.5odds up −227 Won 85%

Houston wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence85%

Model78.9% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge+11.7

TotalBest pick

Under 69.5odds up −227 Won 85%

The two teams score 69 or fewer points between them.

Confidence85%

Model80.2% SportsbooksOdds70.0% Edge+10.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Oklahoma St77071421

Houston0100141024

Most likely final scoresOKST 21–24 HOU 0.5%OKST 28–35 HOU 0.5%OKST 28–31 HOU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Oklahoma StHouston

Offense

372▲ 499 Total yards ▲ 500421

254▲ 365 Passing yards ▲ 343222

118▲ 134 Rushing yards ▼ 157199

19▲ 25 First downs ▲ 2523

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns ▲ 53

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 52

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

0▲ 1 Field goals made ▼ 01

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 71 Penalty yards ▲ 6050

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 298.5 Proj. 372 72% Won · 499

Passing yards Over 196.5 Proj. 254 72% Won · 365

Rushing yards Over 65.5 Proj. 118 72% Won · 134

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 25

Total yards Over 348.5 Proj. 421 72% Won · 500

Passing yards Over 165.5 Proj. 222 72% Won · 343

Rushing yards Over 146.5 Proj. 199 72% Won · 157

First downs Over 19.5 Proj. 23 73% Won · 25

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Oklahoma St

QB Drew Mestemaker20/32 · 248 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.8 INT 248pass yds

RB Caleb Hawkins17 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec 62rush yds

WR/TE Wyatt Young5 rec · 73 yds · 0.6 TD 73rec yds

WR/TE Justin Bowick5 rec · 70 yds · 0.7 TD 70rec yds

Houston

QB Conner Weigman18/27 · 210 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 210pass yds

RB Re'Shaun Sanford II13 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 2 rec 58rush yds

WR/TE Patrick Overmyer5 rec · 59 yds · 0.7 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Trent Walker3 rec · 38 yds · 0.1 TD 38rec yds

Road form. Oklahoma St is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.5 points a game.

Home form. Houston is 3-0 at home, scoring 45.7 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at HOU −3.5 and is now HOU −4.5, a 1-point move toward Houston.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Oklahoma St has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Oklahoma StateHouston

4-1Record5-1

1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W4StreakW3

7 daysRest7 days

38.2Points per game40.0

21.4Points allowed19.2

+84 Point differentialseason to date +125

322Passing yards / game252

199Rushing yards / game230

34%3rd-down conversion63%

6Takeaways8

0Sacks0

9Turnovers4

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Oklahoma St’s road games with Houston’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.