Ohio State vs USC Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
OSU	3	6	0	9	18
USC	14	6	7	3	30

Ohio State vs USC picks

3 picks · Ohio State by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

OSU MLodds up −263 Lost 94%

Ohio State wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model78.3% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+7.8

SpreadBest pick

OSU +1.5odds up −263 Lost 79%

Ohio State wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model79.8% SportsbooksOdds71.0% Edge+8.8

Total

Over 43.5odds up −250 Won 74%

The two teams score 44 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model78.0% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+9.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Ohio State07021728

USC77071421

Most likely final scoresOSU 28–21 USC 0.6%OSU 42–14 USC 0.5%OSU 31–28 USC 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 20 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Ohio StateUSC

Offense

404▲ 464 Total yards ▼ 338342

264▼ 260 Passing yards ▼ 222234

140▲ 204 Rushing yards ▲ 116108

22▲ 25 First downs ▼ 1520

Scoring

4▼ 1 Touchdowns ▲ 32

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 11

2▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

0▲ 4 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

48▲ 71 Penalty yards ▼ 4251

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 331.5 Proj. 404 72% Won · 464

Passing yards Over 206.5 Proj. 264 72% Won · 260

Rushing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 141 72% Won · 204

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Won · 25

Total yards Over 269.5 Proj. 342 72% Won · 338

Passing yards Over 177.5 Proj. 234 72% Won · 222

Rushing yards Over 56.5 Proj. 108 72% Won · 116

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Lost · 15

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Ohio State

QB Julian Sayin19/27 · 243 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.5 INT 243pass yds

RB Bo Jackson15 carries · 73 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 73rush yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Smith7 rec · 120 yds · 1.2 TD 120rec yds

WR/TE Devin Mccuin2 rec · 28 yds · 0.2 TD 28rec yds

USC

QB Jayden Maiava20/34 · 233 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 233pass yds

RB King Miller15 carries · 72 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec 72rush yds

WR/TE Trent Mosley5 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD 53rec yds

WR/TE Tanook Hines3 rec · 37 yds · 0.3 TD 37rec yds

Road form. Ohio State is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 6.7 points a game.

Home form. USC is 4-1 at home, scoring 36.4 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 51.5 and is now 50.5.

Rest. Ohio State comes in on 14 days’ rest, USC on 7.

Streak. Ohio State has won 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Ohio StateUSC

6-1Record6-2

2-1 roadRoad / home4-1 home

W5StreakL1

14 daysRest7 days

39.3Points per game32.8

13.4Points allowed25.0

+181 Point differentialseason to date +62

323Passing yards / game304

153Rushing yards / game131

44%3rd-down conversion51%

10Takeaways6

0Sacks0

8Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Ohio State’s road games with USC’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.