Notre Dame vs Navy Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
ND	7	7	14	7	35
NAVY	3	10	0	0	13

Notre Dame vs Navy picks

3 picks · Notre Dame by 35 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

ND ML−10000 Won 95%

Notre Dame wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model95.9% SportsbooksOdds98.4% Edge−2.5

Spread

NAVY +37.5odds up −222 Won 79%

Navy wins, or loses by 37 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model69.2% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+0.3

TotalBest pick

Over 46.5odds down −323 Won 78%

The two teams score 47 or more points between them.

Confidence78%

Model69.9% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+0.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Notre Dame721772842

Navy007007

Most likely final scoresND 42–7 NAVY 0.8%ND 42–14 NAVY 0.7%ND 41–7 NAVY 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Notre DameNavy

Offense

433▼ 426 Total yards ▼ 245284

266▼ 222 Passing yards ▼ 33145

167▲ 204 Rushing yards ▲ 212139

21▲ 25 First downs ▼ 1516

Scoring

5= 5 Touchdowns = 11

3▼ 2 Passing touchdowns = 00

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 11

2▼ 0 Field goals made ▲ 20

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

45▼ 25 Penalty yards ▲ 8644

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 359.5 Proj. 433 72% Won · 426

Passing yards Over 208.5 Proj. 266 72% Won · 222

Rushing yards Over 114.5 Proj. 167 72% Won · 204

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 72% Won · 25

Total yards Over 210.5 Proj. 284 72% Won · 245

Passing yards Over 87.5 Proj. 144 72% Lost · 33

Rushing yards Over 86.5 Proj. 139 72% Won · 212

First downs Over 12.5 Proj. 16 73% Won · 15

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Notre Dame

QB C.J. Carr17/25 · 233 pass yds · 2.8 TD · 0.6 INT 233pass yds

RB Jonaz Walton9 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec 61rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Faison5 rec · 62 yds · 0.8 TD 62rec yds

WR/TE Jaden Greathouse3 rec · 50 yds · 0.4 TD 50rec yds

Navy

QB Jackson Gutierrez9/15 · 123 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.4 INT 123pass yds

RB Michael Barrow9 carries · 34 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 2 rec 34rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Collins2 rec · 52 yds · 0.0 TD 52rec yds

WR/TE Charles Robinson4 rec · 19 yds · 0.0 TD 19rec yds

Road form. Notre Dame is 2-1 on the road this season, winning by 15.3 points a game.

Home form. Navy is 2-1 at home, scoring 38.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at NAVY +28.5 and is now NAVY +30.5, a 2-point move toward Notre Dame.

Rest. Notre Dame comes in on 14 days’ rest, Navy on 7.

Tale of the tape

Notre DameNavy

6-1Record2-5

2-1 roadRoad / home2-1 home

L1StreakL2

14 daysRest7 days

41.1Points per game29.7

13.4Points allowed29.1

+194 Point differentialseason to date +4

262Passing yards / game123

183Rushing yards / game308

44%3rd-down conversion43%

16Takeaways4

0Sacks0

2Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Notre Dame’s road games with Navy’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.