MoneylineBest pick
ND MLodds down −476
Lost 91%
Notre Dame wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model74.3%
SportsbooksOdds79.6%
Edge−5.3
Notre Dame vs BYU prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 3 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 24 |
| BYU | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
NOTRE DAME 74%
Pre-game win chance
26% BYU
ND by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 17, 11:26 PM ET
Notre Dame vs BYU picks
3 picks · Notre Dame by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
ND −3.5odds down −250
Lost 77%
Notre Dame wins by four points or more.
Confidence77%
Model65.2%
SportsbooksOdds67.1%
Edge−1.9
Total
Over 39.5odds up −270
Won 74%
The two teams score 40 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model77.8%
SportsbooksOdds70.4%
Edge+7.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Notre Dame014771428
BYU0777721
Most likely final scoresND 28–21 BYU 0.6%ND 42–14 BYU 0.6%ND 38–14 BYU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Notre DameBYU
Offense
385▼ 376
Total yards
▲ 360320
227▲ 261
Passing yards
▲ 239196
158▼ 115
Rushing yards
▼ 121124
20▲ 22
First downs
▲ 2317
Scoring
4▼ 2
Touchdowns
▲ 43
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
= 22
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0▲ 1
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
41▼ 40
Penalty yards
▼ 3549
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 311.5
Proj. 385
72%
Won · 376
Passing yards
Over 170.5
Proj. 227
72%
Won · 261
Rushing yards
Over 105.5
Proj. 158
72%
Won · 115
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 22
Total yards
Over 246.5
Proj. 320
72%
Won · 360
Passing yards
Over 139.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 239
Rushing yards
Over 71.5
Proj. 124
72%
Won · 121
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
72%
Won · 23
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Notre Dame
QB
C.J. Carr17/25 · 199 pass yds · 1.9 TD · 0.7 INT
199pass yds
RB
Jonaz Walton9 carries · 61 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
61rush yds
WR/TE
Jordan Faison5 rec · 56 yds · 0.5 TD
56rec yds
WR/TE
Jaden Greathouse2 rec · 23 yds · 0.2 TD
23rec yds
BYU
QB
Bear Bachmeier16/26 · 193 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.4 INT
193pass yds
RB
Journee Tonga6 carries · 22 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 1 rec
22rush yds
WR/TE
Legend Glasker4 rec · 71 yds · 0.8 TD
71rec yds
WR/TE
Walker Lyons3 rec · 28 yds · 0.0 TD
28rec yds
Road form. Notre Dame is 2-0 on the road this season, winning by 25.0 points a game.
Home form. BYU is 3-0 at home, scoring 38.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at BYU +12.5 and is now BYU +10.5, a 2-point move toward BYU.
Rest. Notre Dame comes in on 7 days’ rest, BYU on 8.
Streak. Notre Dame has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Notre DameBYU
Notre DameBYU
6-0Record5-0
2-0 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W6StreakW5
7 daysRest8 days
44.0Points per game34.6
11.0Points allowed13.4
+198
Point differentialseason to date
+106
262Passing yards / game210
195Rushing yards / game224
45%3rd-down conversion54%
14Takeaways7
0Sacks0
1Turnovers3
251Passing yards / game253
209Rushing yards / game211
37%3rd-down conversion59%
3Takeaways5
0Sacks0
1Turnovers1
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Notre Dame’s road games with BYU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Notre Dame
6-0
WWWWW
Wk 6Oct 10vs STAN
Stanford7Notre Dame58
Stanford: no odds on recordNotre Dame: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ UNC
Notre Dame37North Carolina26
Notre Dame moneyline −2500North Carolina moneyline +820
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ PUR
Notre Dame49Purdue10
Notre Dame moneyline −5000Purdue moneyline +1300
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs MSU
Michigan St10Notre Dame27
Michigan St moneyline +1300Notre Dame moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs RICE
Rice0Notre Dame52
Rice moneyline +1000Notre Dame: no odds on record
WFINAL
BYU
5-0
WWWWW
Wk 6Oct 9vs ISU
Iowa State10BYU24
Iowa State moneyline +350BYU moneyline −476
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ TCU
BYU17TCU10
BYU moneyline −233TCU moneyline +175
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ CSU
BYU41Colorado St23
BYU moneyline −1111Colorado St moneyline +540
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs ARIZ
Arizona17BYU28
Arizona moneyline +200BYU moneyline −286
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs UT
Utah Tech7BYU63
Utah Tech moneyline +1100BYU: no odds on record
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameFBS Independents
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Big 12
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (ND)−455down −476
Moneyline (BYU)+335up +350
Spread (BYU)+12.5down +10.5
Total49.5down 47
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
BYU beat Notre Dame 28–24 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Notre Dame at −476 and BYU at +350.
Our model predicted a final score of Notre Dame 28, BYU 21. Its picks: Notre Dame to win (−476), lost; Notre Dame −3.5 (−250), lost; over 39.5 points (−270), won. The best pick was Notre Dame to win, at 91% confidence.