Northwestern vs Oregon Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NU	10	10	3	3	26
ORE	3	10	7	14	34

Northwestern vs Oregon picks

3 picks · Oregon by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

ORE MLodds down −204 Won 94%

Oregon wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model71.9% SportsbooksOdds60.1% Edge+11.8

Spread

ORE +3.5odds down −294 Won 86%

Oregon wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence86%

Model79.9% SportsbooksOdds69.9% Edge+10.0

TotalBest pick

Over 42.5odds up −208 Won 78%

The two teams score 43 or more points between them.

Confidence78%

Model69.7% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge+1.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Northwestern77701421

Oregon07710724

Most likely final scoresNU 21–24 ORE 0.6%NU 21–28 ORE 0.6%NU 21–35 ORE 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

NorthwesternOregon

Offense

337▲ 456 Total yards ▲ 441425

189▲ 281 Passing yards ▲ 336254

148▲ 175 Rushing yards ▼ 105171

18▲ 22 First downs ▼ 1722

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 43

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0▲ 4 Field goals made ▲ 21

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

49▼ 35 Penalty yards ▼ 553

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 264.5 Proj. 337 72% Won · 456

Passing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 189 72% Won · 281

Rushing yards Over 96.5 Proj. 148 72% Won · 175

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 73% Won · 22

Total yards Over 352.5 Proj. 425 72% Won · 441

Passing yards Over 196.5 Proj. 254 72% Won · 336

Rushing yards Over 118.5 Proj. 171 72% Lost · 105

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Lost · 17

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Northwestern

QB Aidan Chiles16/26 · 189 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 189pass yds

RB Caleb Komolafe11 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 62rush yds

WR/TE Griffin Wilde6 rec · 72 yds · 0.7 TD 72rec yds

WR/TE Drew Wagner3 rec · 25 yds · 0.4 TD 25rec yds

Oregon

QB Dylan Raiola14/21 · 140 pass yds · 1.1 TD · 0.5 INT 140pass yds

RB Jordon Davison13 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 1 rec 64rush yds

WR/TE Jamari Johnson5 rec · 65 yds · 0.5 TD 65rec yds

WR/TE Dakorien Moore5 rec · 52 yds · 0.5 TD 52rec yds

Road form. Northwestern is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 1.5 points a game.

Home form. Oregon is 3-1 at home, scoring 37.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ORE −7.5 and is now ORE −4.5, a 3-point move toward Northwestern.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Northwestern has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

NorthwesternOregon

6-1Record4-3

1-1 roadRoad / home3-1 home

W4StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

34.7Points per game33.1

16.6Points allowed20.7

+127 Point differentialseason to date +87

231Passing yards / game278

205Rushing yards / game143

48%3rd-down conversion35%

12Takeaways12

0Sacks0

3Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Northwestern’s road games with Oregon’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.