MoneylineBest pick
OSU MLodds down −556
94%
Ohio State wins the game.
Confidence94%
Model83.0%
SportsbooksOdds77.3%
Edge+5.7
Northwestern vs Ohio State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadOSU −12.5
Total45.5 points
Kickoff in2d 20h
Updated 3:17 PM ET
Northwestern vs Ohio State picks
3 picks · Ohio State by 28 · 56 pointsSpread
OSU −10.5odds down −133
74%
Ohio State wins by 11 points or more.
Confidence74%
Model59.4%
SportsbooksOdds50.8%
Edge+8.6
Total
Over 47.5odds up +104
74%
The two teams score 48 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model54.2%
SportsbooksOdds49.1%
Edge+5.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Northwestern0707714
Ohio State721772842
Most likely final scoresNU 14–42 OSU 0.6%NU 14–38 OSU 0.5%NU 14–35 OSU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
NorthwesternOhio State
Offense
305
Total yards
434
191
Passing yards
276
114
Rushing yards
158
17
First downs
22
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
5
1
Passing touchdowns
3
1
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
46
Penalty yards
50
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 232.5
Proj. 305
72%
Passing yards
Over 134.5
Proj. 192
72%
Rushing yards
Over 61.5
Proj. 114
72%
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
73%
Total yards
Over 360.5
Proj. 434
72%
Passing yards
Over 218.5
Proj. 276
72%
Rushing yards
Over 105.5
Proj. 158
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
72%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Northwestern
QB
Nicco Marchiol10/18 · 77 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.0 INT
77pass yds
RB
Caleb Komolafe11 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Griffin Wilde6 rec · 86 yds · 0.4 TD
86rec yds
WR/TE
Drew Wagner4 rec · 31 yds · 0.3 TD
31rec yds
Ohio State
QB
Luke Fahey18/25 · 200 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.3 INT
200pass yds
RB
Bo Jackson15 carries · 84 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 3 rec
84rush yds
WR/TE
Jeremiah Smith8 rec · 123 yds · 2.1 TD
123rec yds
WR/TE
Devin Mccuin4 rec · 42 yds · 0.3 TD
42rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at OSU −10.5 and is now OSU −12.5, a 2-point move toward Ohio State.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
NorthwesternOhio State
NorthwesternOhio State
6-3Record6-3
L2StreakL2
7 daysRest7 days
31.0Points per game35.7
19.3Points allowed18.3
7th Big TenConference5th Big Ten
+105
Point differentialseason to date
+156
231Passing yards / game320
190Rushing yards / game148
43%3rd-down conversion44%
15Takeaways11
0Sacks0
3Turnovers10
267Passing yards / game357
114Rushing yards / game159
45%3rd-down conversion43%
2Takeaways4
0Sacks0
0Turnovers6
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Northwestern’s road games with Ohio State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Northwestern
6-3
WWWLL
Wk 10Nov 7vs IOWA
Iowa24Northwestern10
Iowa moneyline −154Northwestern moneyline +128
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31@ ORE
Northwestern26Oregon34
Northwestern moneyline +148Oregon moneyline −200
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs RUTG
Rutgers14Northwestern42
Rutgers moneyline +550Northwestern moneyline −1000
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ MSU
Northwestern24Michigan St21
Northwestern moneyline −345Michigan St moneyline +260
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs BALL
Ball State14Northwestern45
Ball State: no odds on recordNorthwestern: no odds on record
WFINAL
Ohio State
6-3
WWWLL
Wk 10Nov 7vs ORE
Oregon41Ohio State28
Oregon moneyline +270Ohio State moneyline −370
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31@ USC
Ohio State18USC30
Ohio State moneyline −263USC moneyline +190
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ IU
Ohio State19Indiana15
Ohio State moneyline −164Indiana moneyline +121
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs MD
Maryland16Ohio State45
Maryland moneyline +1900Ohio State moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ IOWA
Ohio State31Iowa14
Ohio State moneyline −769Iowa moneyline +480
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameBig Ten
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NU)+330+330
Moneyline (OSU)−455−455
Spread (OSU)−10.5down −12.5
Total47.5down 45.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Northwestern visits Ohio State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 PM ET. Northwestern comes in at 6-3 and Ohio State at 6-3. The moneyline has Northwestern at +330 and Ohio State at −455.
Our model predicts a final score of Northwestern 14, Ohio State 42. Its picks: Ohio State to win (−556); Ohio State −10.5 (−133); over 47.5 points (+104). The best pick is Ohio State to win, at 94% confidence.