MoneylineBest pick
NU ML−345
Won 91%
Northwestern wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model68.4%
SportsbooksOdds74.9%
Edge−6.5
Northwestern vs Michigan State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NU | 3 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 24 |
| MSU | 7 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
NORTHWESTERN 68%
Pre-game win chance
32% MICHIGAN ST
NU by 3 · 45 points
Updated Oct 17, 3:23 PM ET
Northwestern vs Michigan St picks
3 picks · Northwestern by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
MSU +15.5odds down −294
Won 78%
Michigan St wins, or loses by 15 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model67.5%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge−1.8
Total
Under 56.5odds up −233
Won 74%
The two teams score 56 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model72.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+3.4
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Northwestern771001424
Michigan St70014721
Most likely final scoresNU 24–21 MSU 0.7%NU 28–21 MSU 0.6%NU 21–14 MSU 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
NorthwesternMichigan St
Offense
369▼ 360
Total yards
▼ 305344
208▲ 226
Passing yards
▲ 216215
161▼ 134
Rushing yards
▼ 89129
20▲ 23
First downs
▼ 1520
Scoring
3▼ 2
Touchdowns
▲ 32
1▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 21
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
1▲ 3
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
49▼ 20
Penalty yards
▼ 1554
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 296.5
Proj. 369
72%
Won · 360
Passing yards
Over 150.5
Proj. 208
72%
Won · 226
Rushing yards
Over 109.5
Proj. 162
72%
Won · 134
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 23
Total yards
Over 270.5
Proj. 344
72%
Won · 305
Passing yards
Over 157.5
Proj. 214
72%
Won · 216
Rushing yards
Over 77.5
Proj. 129
72%
Won · 89
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
73%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Northwestern
QB
Aidan Chiles17/26 · 208 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.0 INT
208pass yds
RB
Caleb Komolafe11 carries · 53 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
53rush yds
WR/TE
Griffin Wilde5 rec · 75 yds · 0.3 TD
75rec yds
WR/TE
Drew Wagner3 rec · 28 yds · 0.1 TD
28rec yds
Michigan St
QB
Alessio Milivojevic20/30 · 200 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT
200pass yds
RB
Jaziun Patterson11 carries · 47 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec
47rush yds
WR/TE
Jayden Savoury4 rec · 43 yds · 0.0 TD
43rec yds
WR/TE
Chrishon McCray4 rec · 35 yds · 0.0 TD
35rec yds
Road form. Northwestern is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 6.0 points a game.
Home form. Michigan St is 2-2 at home, scoring 28.8 points a game there.
Total move. The total opened at 48.5 and is now 49.5.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Michigan St has lost 4 in a row.
Tale of the tape
NorthwesternMichigan State
NorthwesternMichigan State
4-1Record2-4
0-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home
W2StreakL4
7 daysRest7 days
35.4Points per game21.3
16.2Points allowed25.7
+96
Point differentialseason to date
−26
234Passing yards / game188
203Rushing yards / game124
42%3rd-down conversion43%
8Takeaways3
0Sacks0
2Turnovers7
293Passing yards / game224
32Rushing yards / game144
44%3rd-down conversion49%
0Takeaways3
0Sacks0
0Turnovers5
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Northwestern’s road games with Michigan St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Northwestern
4-1
WWLWW
Wk 6Oct 10vs BALL
Ball State14Northwestern45
Ball State: no odds on recordNorthwestern: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2vs PSU
Penn State13Northwestern34
Penn State moneyline −154Northwestern moneyline +120
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 25@ IU
Northwestern23Indiana29
Northwestern moneyline +720Indiana moneyline −2000
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs COLO
Colorado7Northwestern41
Colorado moneyline +142Northwestern moneyline −192
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs SDS
S Dakota St18Northwestern34
S Dakota St moneyline +400Northwestern moneyline −667
WFINAL
Michigan St
2-4
WLLLL
Wk 6Oct 10vs ILL
Illinois38Michigan St37
Illinois moneyline −154Michigan St moneyline +112
LF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ WIS
Michigan St3Wisconsin31
Michigan St moneyline +270Wisconsin moneyline −400
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs NEB
Nebraska31Michigan St13
Nebraska moneyline −250Michigan St moneyline +182
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ ND
Michigan St10Notre Dame27
Michigan St moneyline +1300Notre Dame moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs EMU
E Michigan7Michigan St35
E Michigan moneyline +580Michigan St moneyline −1111
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig Ten
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NU)−333down −345
Moneyline (MSU)+245up +260
Spread (MSU)+7.5+7.5
Total48.5up 49.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Northwestern beat Michigan State 24–21 in college football Week 7, on Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Northwestern at −345 and Michigan State at +260.
Our model predicted a final score of Northwestern 24, Michigan St 21. Its picks: Northwestern to win (−345), won; Michigan State +15.5 (−294), won; under 56.5 points (−233), won. The best pick was Northwestern to win, at 91% confidence.