Moneyline
UNT MLodds down −135
83%
North Texas wins the game.
Confidence83%
Model62.4%
SportsbooksOdds53.3%
Edge+9.1
North Texas vs UTSA prediction, picks and odds
SpreadUNT −2.5
Total76.5 points
Kickoff in3d 5h
Updated 1:48 PM ET
North Texas vs UTSA picks
3 picks · North Texas by 3 · 65 pointsSpreadBest pick
UNT +6.5odds down −256
79%
North Texas wins, or loses by six points or fewer.
Confidence79%
Model77.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+9.1
Total
Under 85.5odds down −263
74%
The two teams score 85 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model68.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+0.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
North Texas7141302134
UTSA777101431
Most likely final scoresUNT 34–31 UTSA 0.6%UNT 38–31 UTSA 0.6%UNT 41–38 UTSA 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
North TexasUTSA
Offense
457
Total yards
411
263
Passing yards
229
194
Rushing yards
182
23
First downs
21
Scoring
5
Touchdowns
4
2
Passing touchdowns
2
3
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
64
Penalty yards
60
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 384.5
Proj. 457
72%
Passing yards
Over 205.5
Proj. 263
72%
Rushing yards
Over 142.5
Proj. 195
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 23
74%
Total yards
Over 337.5
Proj. 411
72%
Passing yards
Over 171.5
Proj. 229
72%
Rushing yards
Over 129.5
Proj. 182
72%
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
73%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
North Texas
QB
Tayven Jackson19/30 · 243 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT
243pass yds
RB
Jahiem White21 carries · 147 rush yds · 2.2 TD · 2 rec
147rush yds
WR/TE
Justin Stevenson6 rec · 85 yds · 0.8 TD
85rec yds
WR/TE
Kyle Koch4 rec · 35 yds · 0.5 TD
35rec yds
UTSA
QB
Owen McCown19/30 · 227 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
227pass yds
RB
Will Henderson III14 carries · 73 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
73rush yds
WR/TE
David Amador5 rec · 47 yds · 0.2 TD
47rec yds
WR/TE
Mekhi Anderson3 rec · 47 yds · 0.9 TD
47rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at UTSA +1.5 and is now UTSA +2.5, a 1-point move toward North Texas.
Rest. North Texas comes in on 7 days’ rest, UTSA on 9.
Streak. North Texas has won 6 in a row.
Tale of the tape
North TexasUTSA
North TexasUTSA
7-2Record7-2
W6StreakL1
7 daysRest9 days
44.7Points per game33.0
30.9Points allowed29.8
2nd AmericanConference3rd American
+124
Point differentialseason to date
+29
343Passing yards / game230
188Rushing yards / game181
50%3rd-down conversion41%
14Takeaways13
0Sacks0
10Turnovers8
334Passing yards / game287
158Rushing yards / game220
48%3rd-down conversion47%
1Takeaways3
0Sacks0
7Turnovers0
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares North Texas’ road games with UTSA’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
North Texas
7-2
WWWWW
Wk 10Nov 7vs RICE
Rice23North Texas52
Rice moneyline +525North Texas moneyline −1000
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 29vs FAU
FAU41North Texas48
FAU moneyline +390North Texas moneyline −556
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ NAVY
North Texas49Navy39
North Texas moneyline −161Navy moneyline +120
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs CLT
Charlotte10North Texas50
Charlotte moneyline +940North Texas moneyline −5000
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1@ TLSA
North Texas45Tulsa44
North Texas moneyline −149Tulsa moneyline +117
WF/OT
UTSA
7-2
WWWWL
Wk 10Nov 5@ FAU
UTSA29FAU60
UTSA moneyline −345FAU moneyline +260
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24@ TULN
UTSA42Tulane19
UTSA moneyline −143Tulane moneyline +116
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs NAVY
Navy34UTSA38
Navy moneyline +185UTSA moneyline −233
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs USF
South Florida24UTSA31
South Florida: no odds on recordUTSA: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ RICE
UTSA16Rice14
UTSA moneyline −556Rice moneyline +350
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
NORTH TEXAS
1
Wins
Avg. points55.0 – 17.0
Avg. total72.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
UTSA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 8DATCU Stadium
North Texas55UTSA17
North Texas moneyline +145UTSA moneyline −192
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UNT)−137−137
Moneyline (UTSA)+112+112
Spread (UTSA)+1.5up +2.5
Total76.576.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
North Texas visits UTSA in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 9:00 PM ET. North Texas comes in at 7-2 and UTSA at 7-2. The moneyline has North Texas at −137 and UTSA at +112.
Our model predicts a final score of North Texas 34, UTSA 31. Its picks: North Texas to win (−135); North Texas +6.5 (−256); under 85.5 points (−263). The best pick is North Texas +6.5, at 79% confidence.