Moneyline
UNT MLodds down −159
Won 87%
North Texas wins the game.
Confidence87%
Model64.6%
SportsbooksOdds53.7%
Edge+10.9
North Texas vs Navy prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNT | 14 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 49 |
| NAVY | 3 | 14 | 15 | 7 | 39 |
NORTH TEXAS 65%
Pre-game win chance
35% NAVY
UNT by 7 · 55 points
Updated Oct 24, 7:05 PM ET
North Texas vs Navy picks
3 picks · North Texas by 7 · 55 points · 2 of 3 wonSpread
UNT +5.5odds down −294
Won 84%
North Texas wins, or loses by five points or fewer.
Confidence84%
Model77.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+8.7
TotalBest pick
Under 69.5odds down −286
Lost 83%
The two teams score 69 or fewer points between them.
Confidence83%
Model77.0%
SportsbooksOdds69.8%
Edge+7.2
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
North Texas0170141731
Navy017071724
Most likely final scoresUNT 31–24 NAVY 0.6%UNT 31–28 NAVY 0.6%UNT 35–21 NAVY 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
North TexasNavy
Offense
430▲ 477
Total yards
▲ 529371
290▲ 305
Passing yards
▲ 166155
140▲ 172
Rushing yards
▲ 363216
22▼ 21
First downs
▲ 3019
Scoring
4▲ 6
Touchdowns
▲ 53
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
= 11
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 42
1▼ 0
Field goals made
= 11
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
= 11
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
51▲ 80
Penalty yards
▼ 549
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 356.5
Proj. 430
72%
Won · 477
Passing yards
Over 232.5
Proj. 290
72%
Won · 305
Rushing yards
Over 87.5
Proj. 140
72%
Won · 172
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 22
74%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 298.5
Proj. 372
72%
Won · 529
Passing yards
Over 97.5
Proj. 155
72%
Won · 166
Rushing yards
Over 164.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 363
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
70%
Won · 30
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
North Texas
QB
Tayven Jackson20/29 · 260 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT
260pass yds
RB
Jahiem White16 carries · 87 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 3 rec
87rush yds
WR/TE
Justin Stevenson5 rec · 63 yds · 0.6 TD
63rec yds
WR/TE
Max Reese2 rec · 35 yds · 0.4 TD
35rec yds
Navy
QB
Jackson Gutierrez9/15 · 129 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.3 INT
129pass yds
RB
Michael Barrow9 carries · 42 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec
42rush yds
WR/TE
Luke Hutchison3 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Charles Robinson4 rec · 17 yds · 0.2 TD
17rec yds
Road form. North Texas is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 16.3 points a game.
Home form. Navy is 2-0 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at NAVY +1.5 and is now NAVY +3.5, a 2-point move toward North Texas.
Rest. North Texas comes in on 14 days’ rest, Navy on 7.
Streak. North Texas has won 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
North TexasNavy
North TexasNavy
4-2Record2-4
1-2 roadRoad / home2-0 home
W3StreakL1
14 daysRest7 days
42.2Points per game28.2
29.2Points allowed25.8
+78
Point differentialseason to date
+14
346Passing yards / game116
182Rushing yards / game299
49%3rd-down conversion43%
9Takeaways3
0Sacks0
7Turnovers9
343Passing yards / game58
154Rushing yards / game446
49%3rd-down conversion65%
0Takeaways0
0Sacks0
6Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares North Texas’ road games with Navy’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
North Texas
4-2
WLWWW
Wk 6Oct 10vs CLT
Charlotte10North Texas50
Charlotte moneyline +940North Texas moneyline −5000
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1@ TLSA
North Texas45Tulsa44
North Texas moneyline −149Tulsa moneyline +117
WF/OT
Wk 4Sep 26vs HC
Hou Christian14North Texas63
Hou Christian: no odds on recordNorth Texas: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ TXST
North Texas35Texas St49
North Texas moneyline +118Texas St moneyline −156
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs UNLV
UNLV6North Texas44
UNLV moneyline −149North Texas moneyline +115
WFINAL
Navy
2-4
LLLWL
Wk 7Oct 17@ UTSA
Navy34UTSA38
Navy moneyline +185UTSA moneyline −233
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs TLSA
Tulsa26Navy34
Tulsa moneyline +117Navy moneyline −159
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ AF
Navy9Air Force14
Navy moneyline +118Air Force moneyline −161
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 25@ UAB
Navy20UAB24
Navy moneyline −270UAB moneyline +195
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ FAU
Navy30FAU38
Navy moneyline −217FAU moneyline +155
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
NORTH TEXAS
1
Wins
Avg. points31.0 – 17.0
Avg. total48.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
NAVY
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 10North Texas home
Navy17North Texas31
Navy moneyline +187North Texas moneyline −256
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (UNT)−167up −161
Moneyline (NAVY)+125down +120
Spread (NAVY)+1.5up +3.5
Total61.561.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
North Texas beat Navy 49–39 in college football Week 8, on Saturday, October 24 at 3:30 PM ET. The moneyline had North Texas at −161 and Navy at +120.
Our model predicted a final score of North Texas 31, Navy 24. Its picks: North Texas to win (−159), won; North Texas +5.5 (−294), won; under 69.5 points (−286), lost. The best pick was under 69.5 points, at 83% confidence.