North Carolina vs UConn Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UNC	7	21	3	7	38
CONN	0	14	7	0	21

North Carolina vs UConn picks

3 picks · North Carolina by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

UNC MLodds down −333 Won 93%

North Carolina wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model66.0% SportsbooksOdds71.0% Edge−5.0

SpreadBest pick

CONN +14.5odds up −222 Lost 77%

UConn wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model69.8% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge0.0

Total

Under 61.5odds up −213 Won 74%

The two teams score 61 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model72.9% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+4.8

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

North Carolina770141428

UConn77071421

Most likely final scoresUNC 28–21 CONN 0.7%UNC 24–21 CONN 0.6%UNC 27–24 CONN 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

North CarolinaUConn

Offense

381▲ 419 Total yards ▼ 368369

242▲ 255 Passing yards ▲ 245220

139▲ 164 Rushing yards ▼ 123149

22▲ 23 First downs ▼ 1920

Scoring

4▲ 5 Touchdowns = 33

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 21

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 31

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

48▲ 50 Penalty yards ▼ 2758

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 308.5 Proj. 381 72% Won · 419

Passing yards Over 185.5 Proj. 242 72% Won · 255

Rushing yards Over 86.5 Proj. 139 72% Won · 164

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 71% Won · 23

Total yards Over 295.5 Proj. 369 72% Won · 368

Passing yards Over 162.5 Proj. 220 72% Won · 245

Rushing yards Over 96.5 Proj. 149 72% Won · 123

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

North Carolina

QB Billy Edwards Jr.21/31 · 242 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 242pass yds

RB Demon June12 carries · 52 rush yds · 1.7 TD · 2 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Shipp7 rec · 85 yds · 0.5 TD 85rec yds

WR/TE Jelani Thurman5 rec · 51 yds · 0.8 TD 51rec yds

UConn

QB Kalieb Osborne19/31 · 218 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.6 INT 218pass yds

RB Cyncir Bowers11 carries · 67 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec 67rush yds

WR/TE Ryder Treadway3 rec · 32 yds · 0.1 TD 32rec yds

WR/TE Jediyah Willoughby2 rec · 30 yds · 0.1 TD 30rec yds

Road form. North Carolina is 3-1 on the road this season, winning by 1.3 points a game.

Home form. UConn is 2-2 at home, scoring 36.5 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at CONN +9.5 and is now CONN +7.5, a 2-point move toward UConn.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

North CarolinaUConn

4-4Record4-4

3-1 roadRoad / home2-2 home

L2StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

25.8Points per game34.4

23.0Points allowed25.3

+22 Point differentialseason to date +73

237Passing yards / game247

108Rushing yards / game191

44%3rd-down conversion41%

8Takeaways7

0Sacks0

11Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares North Carolina’s road games with UConn’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.