North Carolina vs Duke Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
UNC	10	7	0	7	24
DUKE	0	7	3	10	20

North Carolina vs Duke picks

3 picks · Duke by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 won

Moneyline

DUKE ML−164 Lost 93%

Duke wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model66.3% SportsbooksOdds59.2% Edge+7.1

SpreadBest pick

DUKE +3.5odds up −250 Lost 78%

Duke wins, or loses by three points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model75.2% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+6.5

Total

Under 54.5−250 Won 74%

The two teams score 54 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.3% SportsbooksOdds68.3% Edge−1.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

North Carolina0777721

Duke714072128

Most likely final scoresUNC 21–28 DUKE 0.6%UNC 14–28 DUKE 0.6%UNC 21–24 DUKE 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

North CarolinaDuke

Offense

323▲ 326 Total yards ▼ 373400

218▼ 191 Passing yards ▲ 249224

105▲ 135 Rushing yards ▼ 124176

18▲ 22 First downs ▼ 1922

Scoring

3= 3 Touchdowns ▼ 14

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▲ 2 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1▲ 2 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

55▲ 65 Penalty yards ▲ 6758

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 249.5 Proj. 323 72% Won · 326

Passing yards Over 160.5 Proj. 218 72% Won · 191

Rushing yards Over 52.5 Proj. 105 72% Won · 135

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 70% Won · 22

Total yards Over 327.5 Proj. 400 72% Won · 373

Passing yards Over 167.5 Proj. 224 72% Won · 249

Rushing yards Over 123.5 Proj. 176 72% Won · 124

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 73% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

North Carolina

QB Billy Edwards Jr.18/29 · 213 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 213pass yds

RB Benjamin Hall11 carries · 52 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 52rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Shipp6 rec · 73 yds · 0.0 TD 73rec yds

WR/TE Jelani Thurman5 rec · 52 yds · 1.0 TD 52rec yds

Duke

QB Walker Eget20/30 · 191 pass yds · 1.4 TD · 0.6 INT 191pass yds

RB Nate Sheppard23 carries · 115 rush yds · 1.3 TD · 4 rec 115rush yds

WR/TE Jeremiah Hasley4 rec · 46 yds · 0.0 TD 46rec yds

WR/TE Jared Richardson3 rec · 31 yds · 0.6 TD 31rec yds

Road form. North Carolina is 2-1 on the road this season.

Home form. Duke is 3-0 at home, scoring 38.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at DUKE −4.5 and is now DUKE −2.5, a 2-point move toward North Carolina.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

North CarolinaDuke

3-2Record4-1

2-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

23.4Points per game34.0

19.0Points allowed14.4

+22 Point differentialseason to date +98

218Passing yards / game230

112Rushing yards / game227

38%3rd-down conversion47%

7Takeaways3

0Sacks0

8Turnovers2

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares North Carolina’s road games with Duke’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.