Moneyline
SHSU MLodds up +131
Lost 54%
Sam Houston wins the game.
Confidence54%
Model51.1%
SportsbooksOdds43.8%
Edge+7.3
New Mexico State vs Sam Houston prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 14 | 16 | 0 | 30 |
| SHSU | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
NEW MEXICO ST 49%
Pre-game win chance
51% SAM HOUSTON
SHSU by 7 · 49 points
Updated Oct 21, 11:51 PM ET
New Mexico St vs Sam Houston picks
3 picks · Sam Houston by 7 · 49 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
SHSU +2.5odds up +102
Lost 72%
Sam Houston wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence72%
Model55.6%
SportsbooksOdds47.7%
Edge+7.9
TotalBest pick
Over 47.5odds up −104
Won 68%
The two teams score 48 or more points between them.
Confidence68%
Model54.2%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge+3.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
New Mexico St07014721
Sam Houston77771428
Most likely final scoresNMSU 21–28 SHSU 0.5%NMSU 24–27 SHSU 0.5%NMSU 24–31 SHSU 0.4%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
New Mexico StSam Houston
Offense
366▼ 363
Total yards
▼ 246359
196▼ 160
Passing yards
▲ 235230
170▲ 203
Rushing yards
▼ 11129
19▲ 21
First downs
▼ 918
Scoring
3▲ 4
Touchdowns
▼ 23
1▲ 2
Passing touchdowns
▼ 12
2= 2
Rushing touchdowns
= 11
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▲ 10
0
Sacks allowed
0
54▼ 48
Penalty yards
▲ 11963
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 292.5
Proj. 366
72%
Won · 363
Passing yards
Over 139.5
Proj. 196
72%
Won · 160
Rushing yards
Over 117.5
Proj. 170
72%
Won · 203
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 285.5
Proj. 359
72%
Lost · 246
Passing yards
Over 173.5
Proj. 230
72%
Won · 235
Rushing yards
Over 76.5
Proj. 129
72%
Lost · 11
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 18
73%
Lost · 9
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
New Mexico St
QB
Adam Damante11/18 · 106 pass yds · 0.5 TD · 0.4 INT
106pass yds
RB
James Jones17 carries · 119 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 1 rec
119rush yds
WR/TE
Josiah Thomas2 rec · 29 yds · 0.0 TD
29rec yds
WR/TE
Terrell Washington Jr.2 rec · 15 yds · 0.0 TD
15rec yds
Sam Houston
QB
Landyn Locke20/32 · 220 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.6 INT
220pass yds
RB
MJ Dowdy10 carries · 36 rush yds · 0.0 TD
36rush yds
WR/TE
Grady O'Neill4 rec · 40 yds · 0.3 TD
40rec yds
WR/TE
Kyan BerrJohnson3 rec · 30 yds · 0.2 TD
30rec yds
Road form. New Mexico St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 15.3 points a game.
Home form. Sam Houston is 1-2 at home, scoring 26.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at SHSU +2.5 and is now SHSU +3.5, a 1-point move toward New Mexico St.
Rest. New Mexico St comes in on 14 days’ rest, Sam Houston on 7.
Streak. Sam Houston has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
New Mexico StateSam Houston
New Mexico StateSam Houston
2-4Record1-5
0-3 roadRoad / home1-2 home
L1StreakL3
14 daysRest7 days
23.7Points per game19.5
25.7Points allowed24.5
−12
Point differentialseason to date
−30
226Passing yards / game247
143Rushing yards / game95
41%3rd-down conversion37%
6Takeaways7
0Sacks0
11Turnovers6
217Passing yards / game271
93Rushing yards / game118
44%3rd-down conversion40%
3Takeaways3
0Sacks0
7Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares New Mexico St’s road games with Sam Houston’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
New Mexico St
2-4
WLLWL
Wk 6Oct 7@ FIU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1vs WKU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs UNM
New Mexico42New Mexico St18
New Mexico moneyline −588New Mexico St moneyline +345
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ HAW
New Mexico St19Hawai'i29
New Mexico St: no odds on recordHawai'i: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs MERC
Mercyhurst14New Mexico St51
Mercyhurst moneyline +1300New Mexico St moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Sam Houston
1-5
LWLLL
Wk 7Oct 14vs WKU
Western KY16Sam Houston3
Western KY moneyline −120Sam Houston moneyline −102
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ LIB
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ TTU
Sam Houston14Texas Tech49
Sam Houston moneyline +1500Texas Tech moneyline −10000
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs NICH
Nicholls0Sam Houston59
Nicholls: no odds on recordSam Houston: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs TLSA
Tulsa23Sam Houston17
Tulsa moneyline −556Sam Houston moneyline +370
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
NEW MEXICO ST
1
Wins
Avg. points37.0 – 10.0
Avg. total47.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
SAM HOUSTON
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 6Aggie Memorial Stadium
New Mexico St37Sam Houston10
New Mexico St moneyline −128Sam Houston moneyline +101
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NMSU)−172down −175
Moneyline (SHSU)+131up +133
Spread (SHSU)+2.5up +3.5
Total48.5down 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
New Mexico State beat Sam Houston 30–24 in college football Week 8, on Wednesday, October 21 at 8:00 PM ET. The moneyline had New Mexico State at −175 and Sam Houston at +133.
Our model predicted a final score of New Mexico St 21, Sam Houston 28. Its picks: Sam Houston to win (+131), lost; Sam Houston +2.5 (+102), lost; over 47.5 points (−104), won. The best pick was over 47.5 points, at 68% confidence.