Moneyline
MOST MLodds down −130
85%
Missouri St wins the game.
Confidence85%
Model63.5%
SportsbooksOdds53.7%
Edge+9.8
New Mexico State vs Missouri State prediction, picks and odds
SpreadMOST −1.5
Total48.5 points
Kickoff in2d 23h
Updated 3:17 PM ET
New Mexico St vs Missouri St picks
3 picks · Missouri St by 14 · 42 pointsSpread
MOST +4.5odds up −222
83%
Missouri St wins, or loses by four points or fewer.
Confidence83%
Model75.1%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+6.8
TotalBest pick
Over 41.5−256
78%
The two teams score 42 or more points between them.
Confidence78%
Model69.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+1.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
New Mexico St140001414
Missouri St0141401428
Most likely final scoresNMSU 14–28 MOST 0.6%NMSU 24–27 MOST 0.6%NMSU 21–24 MOST 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
New Mexico StMissouri St
Offense
372
Total yards
373
219
Passing yards
236
153
Rushing yards
137
19
First downs
20
Scoring
2
Touchdowns
3
1
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
62
Penalty yards
63
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 299.5
Proj. 372
72%
Passing yards
Over 162.5
Proj. 219
72%
Rushing yards
Over 100.5
Proj. 153
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 19
73%
Total yards
Over 299.5
Proj. 373
72%
Passing yards
Over 179.5
Proj. 236
72%
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 136
72%
First downs
Over 15.5
Proj. 20
74%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
New Mexico St
QB
Trey Hedden10/18 · 130 pass yds · 0.7 TD · 0.7 INT
130pass yds
RB
James Jones20 carries · 120 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec
120rush yds
WR/TE
AJ Williams4 rec · 72 yds · 0.8 TD
72rec yds
WR/TE
Brodrick Malone3 rec · 25 yds · 0.0 TD
25rec yds
Missouri St
QB
Henry Belin IV15/24 · 204 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT
204pass yds
RB
Connor Lair14 carries · 68 rush yds · 2.0 TD · 2 rec
68rush yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Myers5 rec · 107 yds · 0.8 TD
107rec yds
WR/TE
Jmariyae Robinson7 rec · 75 yds · 0.1 TD
75rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at MOST −2.5 and is now MOST −1.5, a 1-point move toward New Mexico St.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
New Mexico StateMissouri State
New Mexico StateMissouri State
3-6Record3-6
L2StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
20.7Points per game23.9
25.8Points allowed30.0
7th C-USAConference8th C-USA
−46
Point differentialseason to date
−55
200Passing yards / game233
144Rushing yards / game124
41%3rd-down conversion37%
10Takeaways10
0Sacks0
17Turnovers11
203Passing yards / game282
120Rushing yards / game174
37%3rd-down conversion47%
5Takeaways4
0Sacks0
9Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares New Mexico St’s road games with Missouri St’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
New Mexico St
3-6
WLWLL
Wk 10Nov 7vs LIB
Liberty30New Mexico St14
Liberty moneyline −714New Mexico St moneyline +480
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 28vs JVST
Jax State24New Mexico St0
Jax State moneyline −167New Mexico St moneyline +124
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 21@ SHSU
New Mexico St30Sam Houston24
New Mexico St moneyline −175Sam Houston moneyline +133
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7@ FIU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 1vs WKU
Western KY13New Mexico St34
Western KY moneyline +102New Mexico St moneyline −132
WFINAL
Missouri St
3-6
LWLWL
Wk 10Nov 7@ FIU
Missouri St20FIU23
Missouri St moneyline +160FIU moneyline −217
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 27vs SHSU
Sam Houston3Missouri St24
Sam Houston moneyline +170Missouri St moneyline −227
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20@ DEL
Missouri St38Delaware61
Missouri St moneyline +148Delaware moneyline −182
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14vs KENN
Kennesaw St21Missouri St24
Kennesaw St moneyline −152Missouri St moneyline +112
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ WKU
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
NEW MEXICO ST
0
Wins
Avg. points17.0 – 24.0
Avg. total41.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
1
MISSOURI ST
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Aggie Memorial Stadium
New Mexico St17Missouri St24
New Mexico St moneyline −143Missouri St moneyline +112
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (NMSU)+105+105
Moneyline (MOST)−128−128
Spread (MOST)−2.5up −1.5
Total50.5down 48.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
New Mexico State visits Missouri State in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 3:00 PM ET. New Mexico State comes in at 3-6 and Missouri State at 3-6. The moneyline has New Mexico State at +105 and Missouri State at −128.
Our model predicts a final score of New Mexico St 14, Missouri St 28. Its picks: Missouri State to win (−130); Missouri State +4.5 (−222); over 41.5 points (−256). The best pick is over 41.5 points, at 78% confidence.