Nebraska vs Illinois Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NEB	0	7	0	6	13
ILL	0	7	7	10	24

Nebraska vs Illinois picks

3 picks · Nebraska by 3 · 45 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

NEB MLodds up −208 Lost 63%

Nebraska wins the game.

Confidence63%

Model54.3% SportsbooksOdds65.7% Edge−11.4

SpreadBest pick

ILL +11.5−263 Won 78%

Illinois wins, or loses by 11 points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model74.8% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+5.5

Total

Under 57.5odds up −196 Won 74%

The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model67.3% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge−0.8

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Nebraska314071724

Illinois0777721

Most likely final scoresNEB 24–21 ILL 0.6%NEB 27–24 ILL 0.6%NEB 21–14 ILL 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

NebraskaIllinois

Offense

370▲ 426 Total yards ▲ 376351

223▲ 284 Passing yards ▲ 292206

147▼ 142 Rushing yards ▼ 84145

21▲ 25 First downs = 1919

Scoring

3▼ 2 Touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▲ 31

2▼ 1 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

55▲ 82 Penalty yards ▲ 5545

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 370 72% Won · 426

Passing yards Over 165.5 Proj. 223 72% Won · 284

Rushing yards Over 94.5 Proj. 147 72% Won · 142

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 70% Won · 25

Total yards Over 278.5 Proj. 351 72% Won · 376

Passing yards Over 149.5 Proj. 206 72% Won · 292

Rushing yards Over 92.5 Proj. 145 72% Lost · 84

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 72% Won · 19

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Nebraska

QB Anthony Colandrea20/30 · 210 pass yds · 0.9 TD · 0.7 INT 210pass yds

RB Mekhi Nelson9 carries · 32 rush yds · 0.5 TD · 2 rec 32rush yds

WR/TE Kwazi Gilmer5 rec · 71 yds · 0.5 TD 71rec yds

WR/TE Luke Lindenmeyer3 rec · 24 yds · 0.1 TD 24rec yds

Illinois

QB Katin Houser17/28 · 192 pass yds · 0.8 TD · 0.8 INT 192pass yds

RB Aidan Laughery12 carries · 68 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 68rush yds

WR/TE Collin Dixon6 rec · 80 yds · 0.5 TD 80rec yds

WR/TE Hudson Clement4 rec · 61 yds · 0.1 TD 61rec yds

Road form. Nebraska is 1-1 on the road this season, winning by 7.5 points a game.

Home form. Illinois is 3-2 at home, scoring 31.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at ILL +6.5 and is now ILL +4.5, a 2-point move toward Illinois.

Rest. Nebraska comes in on 7 days’ rest, Illinois on 6.

Streak. Nebraska has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

NebraskaIllinois

5-3Record5-3

1-1 roadRoad / home3-2 home

L3StreakW3

7 daysRest6 days

32.4Points per game29.0

15.6Points allowed24.3

+134 Point differentialseason to date +38

205Passing yards / game230

170Rushing yards / game164

51%3rd-down conversion45%

10Takeaways6

0Sacks0

4Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Nebraska’s road games with Illinois’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.