NC State vs Stanford Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NCST	7	7	0	14	28
STAN	14	7	7	3	31

NC State vs Stanford picks

3 picks · NC State by 14 · 42 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

NCST MLodds down −313 Lost 93%

NC State wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model73.7% SportsbooksOdds72.8% Edge+0.9

Spread

NCST +1.5odds down −323 Lost 83%

NC State wins, or loses by one point or fewer.

Confidence83%

Model75.5% SportsbooksOdds72.1% Edge+3.4

Total

Under 63.5odds down −270 Won 74%

The two teams score 63 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.5% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+2.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

NC State77771428

Stanford7007714

Most likely final scoresNCST 28–14 STAN 0.6%NCST 27–24 STAN 0.6%NCST 35–7 STAN 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

NC StateStanford

Offense

421▼ 381 Total yards ▲ 477358

249▲ 256 Passing yards ▲ 303242

172▼ 125 Rushing yards ▲ 174116

22▼ 21 First downs ▲ 2718

Scoring

4= 4 Touchdowns ▲ 42

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▲ 41

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 01

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

52▲ 55 Penalty yards ▼ 5556

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 348.5 Proj. 421 72% Won · 381

Passing yards Over 192.5 Proj. 249 72% Won · 256

Rushing yards Over 119.5 Proj. 172 72% Won · 125

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 69% Won · 21

Total yards Over 284.5 Proj. 358 72% Won · 477

Passing yards Over 185.5 Proj. 242 72% Won · 303

Rushing yards Over 63.5 Proj. 116 72% Won · 174

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 19 74% Won · 27

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

NC State

QB CJ Bailey20/32 · 243 pass yds · 1.6 TD · 0.6 INT 243pass yds

RB Davion Gause10 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.2 TD · 3 rec 37rush yds

WR/TE Keenan Jackson4 rec · 64 yds · 0.9 TD 64rec yds

WR/TE Preston Douglas4 rec · 46 yds · 0.2 TD 46rec yds

Stanford

QB Davis Warren20/32 · 234 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT 234pass yds

RB Micah Ford16 carries · 88 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 88rush yds

WR/TE Nico Brown4 rec · 41 yds · 0.2 TD 41rec yds

WR/TE Benjamin Blackburn4 rec · 30 yds · 0.2 TD 30rec yds

Road form. NC State is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 15.0 points a game.

Home form. Stanford is 3-1 at home, scoring 27.8 points a game there.

Total move. The total opened at 56.5 and is now 54.5.

Rest. NC State comes in on 13 days’ rest, Stanford on 6.

Tale of the tape

NC StateStanford

3-3Record3-4

0-2 roadRoad / home3-1 home

L1StreakW1

13 daysRest6 days

33.0Points per game18.3

27.7Points allowed36.6

+32 Point differentialseason to date −128

258Passing yards / game239

169Rushing yards / game106

52%3rd-down conversion33%

8Takeaways7

0Sacks0

9Turnovers6

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares NC State’s road games with Stanford’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.