Navy vs UTSA Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
NAVY	7	13	0	14	34
UTSA	0	21	3	14	38

Navy vs UTSA picks

3 picks · UTSA by 7 · 49 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

UTSA MLodds up −238 Won 83%

UTSA wins the game.

Confidence83%

Model66.1% SportsbooksOdds70.9% Edge−4.8

Spread

NAVY +14.5odds up −256 Won 79%

Navy wins, or loses by 14 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model68.8% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge−1.0

Total

Under 64.5odds up −263 Lost 74%

The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model73.2% SportsbooksOdds69.8% Edge+3.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Navy77701421

UTSA014771428

Most likely final scoresNAVY 21–28 UTSA 0.6%NAVY 28–31 UTSA 0.6%NAVY 24–31 UTSA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

NavyUTSA

Offense

365▲ 477 Total yards ▲ 469380

146▲ 183 Passing yards ▲ 359225

219▲ 294 Rushing yards ▼ 110155

20▼ 17 First downs ▲ 2220

Scoring

3▲ 5 Touchdowns ▲ 53

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▲ 32

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 21

0= 0 Field goals made ▼ 12

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 00

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▲ 71 Penalty yards ▲ 6054

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 291.5 Proj. 365 72% Won · 477

Passing yards Over 88.5 Proj. 146 72% Won · 183

Rushing yards Over 166.5 Proj. 219 72% Won · 294

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 70% Won · 17

Total yards Over 307.5 Proj. 380 72% Won · 469

Passing yards Over 168.5 Proj. 225 72% Won · 359

Rushing yards Over 102.5 Proj. 155 72% Won · 110

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 22

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Navy

QB Jackson Gutierrez9/16 · 131 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.3 INT 131pass yds

RB Michael Barrow8 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE Truman Brasfield2 rec · 70 yds · 1.0 TD 70rec yds

WR/TE Luke Hutchison3 rec · 38 yds · 0.0 TD 38rec yds

UTSA

QB Owen McCown19/28 · 217 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.7 INT 217pass yds

RB Will Henderson III14 carries · 66 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec 66rush yds

WR/TE Mekhi Anderson3 rec · 42 yds · 0.5 TD 42rec yds

WR/TE David Amador4 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD 39rec yds

Road form. Navy is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 5.7 points a game.

Home form. UTSA is 3-0 at home, scoring 45.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UTSA −6.5 and is now UTSA −5.5, a 1-point move toward Navy.

Rest. Navy comes in on 7 days’ rest, UTSA on 9.

Streak. UTSA has won 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

NavyUTSA

2-3Record5-1

0-3 roadRoad / home3-0 home

W1StreakW3

7 daysRest9 days

27.0Points per game31.3

23.4Points allowed25.8

+18 Point differentialseason to date +33

102Passing yards / game211

299Rushing yards / game191

43%3rd-down conversion37%

3Takeaways7

0Sacks0

9Turnovers3

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Navy’s road games with UTSA’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.