Moneyline
LIB ML−2000
95%
Liberty wins the game.
Confidence95%
Model89.7%
SportsbooksOdds94.3%
Edge−4.6
Middle Tennessee vs Liberty prediction, picks and odds
Updated 2:18 PM ET
MTSU vs Liberty picks
3 picks · Liberty by 28 · 42 pointsSpread
LIB −12.5−250
79%
Liberty wins by 13 points or more.
Confidence79%
Model68.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.0%
Edge+0.9
TotalBest pick
Under 60.5−250
78%
The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.
Confidence78%
Model70.0%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+1.7
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
MTSU000707
Liberty7140142135
Most likely final scoresMTSU 7–35 LIB 0.9%MTSU 14–42 LIB 0.6%MTSU 14–38 LIB 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
MTSULiberty
Offense
309
Total yards
416
200
Passing yards
215
109
Rushing yards
201
17
First downs
22
Scoring
1
Touchdowns
4
1
Passing touchdowns
2
0
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
2
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
58
Penalty yards
62
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 235.5
Proj. 309
72%
Passing yards
Over 143.5
Proj. 200
72%
Rushing yards
Over 56.5
Proj. 109
72%
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
71%
Total yards
Over 342.5
Proj. 416
72%
Passing yards
Over 158.5
Proj. 215
72%
Rushing yards
Over 148.5
Proj. 201
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
70%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
MTSU
QB
Roman Gagliano19/34 · 196 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT
196pass yds
RB
Antonio Martin13 carries · 56 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
56rush yds
WR/TE
Cam'Ron Lacy5 rec · 52 yds · 0.1 TD
52rec yds
WR/TE
Terrence Brown Jr.5 rec · 21 yds · 0.0 TD
21rec yds
Liberty
QB
Deshawn Purdie15/23 · 209 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.7 INT
209pass yds
RB
Kam Davis11 carries · 78 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 3 rec
78rush yds
WR/TE
Makai Jackson5 rec · 86 yds · 0.9 TD
86rec yds
WR/TE
Jamari Person2 rec · 37 yds · 0.0 TD
37rec yds
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Liberty has won 8 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Middle TennesseeLiberty
Middle TennesseeLiberty
5-4Record8-1
W1StreakW8
7 daysRest7 days
26.9Points per game33.3
31.0Points allowed13.6
3rd C-USAConference1st C-USA
−37
Point differentialseason to date
+178
211Passing yards / game205
152Rushing yards / game205
34%3rd-down conversion45%
12Takeaways14
0Sacks0
6Turnovers6
185Passing yards / game199
129Rushing yards / game212
23%3rd-down conversion53%
4Takeaways5
0Sacks0
2Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares MTSU’s road games with Liberty’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
MTSU
5-4
LWWLW
Wk 10Nov 7vs WKU
Western KY42MTSU51
Western KY moneyline −143MTSU moneyline +116
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 28vs KENN
Kennesaw St44MTSU28
Kennesaw St moneyline −116MTSU moneyline −115
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20@ FIU
MTSU26FIU23
MTSU moneyline +300FIU moneyline −417
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13vs DEL
Delaware30MTSU33
Delaware moneyline −123MTSU moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ KU
MTSU0Kansas55
MTSU moneyline +780Kansas moneyline −2500
LFINAL
Liberty
8-1
WWWWW
Wk 10Nov 7@ NMSU
Liberty30New Mexico St14
Liberty moneyline −714New Mexico St moneyline +480
WFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs FIU
FIU10Liberty49
FIU moneyline +450Liberty moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22@ KENN
Liberty34Kennesaw St6
Liberty moneyline −417Kennesaw St moneyline +290
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8vs SHSU
Sam Houston3Liberty35
Sam Houston: no odds on recordLiberty: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 2@ DEL
Liberty30Delaware14
Liberty moneyline −294Delaware moneyline +210
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MTSU)+950+950
Moneyline (LIB)−2500−2500
Spread (LIB)−20.5−20.5
Total53.553.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Middle Tennessee visits Liberty in college football Week 11, on Saturday, November 14 at 3:30 PM ET. Middle Tennessee comes in at 5-4 and Liberty at 8-1. The moneyline has Middle Tennessee at +950 and Liberty at −2500.
Our model predicts a final score of MTSU 7, Liberty 35. Its picks: Liberty to win (−2000); Liberty −12.5 (−250); under 60.5 points (−250). The best pick is under 60.5 points, at 78% confidence.