MoneylineBest pick
FIU MLodds up −435
Lost 91%
FIU wins the game.
Confidence91%
Model75.1%
SportsbooksOdds80.3%
Edge−5.2
Middle Tennessee vs Florida International prediction, picks and odds
Updated Oct 20, 10:38 PM ET
MTSU vs FIU picks
3 picks · FIU by 28 · 56 points · 1 of 3 wonSpread
FIU −10.5odds up −112
Lost 68%
FIU wins by 11 points or more.
Confidence68%
Model48.8%
SportsbooksOdds50.9%
Edge−2.1
Total
Over 45.5odds down −123
Won 74%
The two teams score 46 or more points between them.
Confidence74%
Model57.5%
SportsbooksOdds50.0%
Edge+7.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
MTSU0770714
FIU7140212142
Most likely final scoresMTSU 14–42 FIU 0.5%MTSU 14–38 FIU 0.5%MTSU 21–35 FIU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
MTSUFIU
Offense
317▲ 448
Total yards
▼ 347428
201▼ 200
Passing yards
▼ 179254
116▲ 248
Rushing yards
▼ 168174
17▲ 20
First downs
▼ 1522
Scoring
2= 2
Touchdowns
▼ 35
1= 1
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
1= 1
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 03
0▲ 4
Field goals made
▼ 02
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
= 11
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
56▲ 57
Penalty yards
▼ 2958
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 243.5
Proj. 317
72%
Won · 448
Passing yards
Over 143.5
Proj. 200
72%
Won · 200
Rushing yards
Over 63.5
Proj. 116
72%
Won · 248
First downs
Over 13.5
Proj. 17
72%
Won · 20
Total yards
Over 355.5
Proj. 428
72%
Lost · 347
Passing yards
Over 197.5
Proj. 254
72%
Lost · 179
Rushing yards
Over 121.5
Proj. 174
72%
Won · 168
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
72%
Lost · 15
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
MTSU
QB
Roman Gagliano18/31 · 200 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT
200pass yds
RB
Antonio Martin16 carries · 69 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec
69rush yds
WR/TE
Cam'Ron Lacy6 rec · 61 yds · 0.4 TD
61rec yds
WR/TE
Terrence Brown Jr.3 rec · 16 yds · 0.0 TD
16rec yds
FIU
QB
J.J. Kohl18/30 · 235 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.8 INT
235pass yds
RB
Anthony Carrie14 carries · 62 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
62rush yds
WR/TE
Maguire Anderson5 rec · 86 yds · 1.0 TD
86rec yds
WR/TE
James Resar3 rec · 35 yds · 0.5 TD
35rec yds
Road form. MTSU is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 22.3 points a game.
Home form. FIU is 3-0 at home, scoring 25.0 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at FIU −9.5 and is now FIU −10.5, a 1-point move toward FIU.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Tale of the tape
Middle TennesseeFlorida International
Middle TennesseeFlorida International
3-3Record3-3
0-3 roadRoad / home3-0 home
W1StreakL1
7 daysRest7 days
22.8Points per game19.7
28.3Points allowed14.7
−33
Point differentialseason to date
+30
201Passing yards / game263
121Rushing yards / game120
26%3rd-down conversion46%
8Takeaways8
0Sacks0
4Turnovers9
180Passing yards / game244
89Rushing yards / game140
24%3rd-down conversion50%
3Takeaways7
0Sacks0
2Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares MTSU’s road games with FIU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
MTSU
3-3
LWLLW
Wk 7Oct 13vs DEL
Delaware30MTSU33
Delaware moneyline −123MTSU moneyline +100
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ KU
MTSU0Kansas55
MTSU moneyline +780Kansas moneyline −2500
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ JVST
MTSU13Jax State23
MTSU moneyline +220Jax State moneyline −323
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs NEV
Nevada20MTSU27
Nevada moneyline −200MTSU moneyline +145
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ MRSH
MTSU26Marshall28
MTSU moneyline +340Marshall moneyline −556
LFINAL
FIU
3-3
WLWWL
Wk 7Oct 13@ JVST
FIU24Jax State27
FIU moneyline +113Jax State moneyline −154
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7vs NMSU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs LI
Long Island3FIU20
Long Island: no odds on recordFIU: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19@ FAU
FIU10FAU16
FIU moneyline +163FAU moneyline −222
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12vs BUFF
Buffalo20FIU33
Buffalo moneyline +270FIU moneyline −400
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
MTSU
0
Wins
Avg. points30.0 – 56.0
Avg. total86.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
1
FIU
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 11MTSU home
FIU56MTSU30
FIU moneyline −105MTSU moneyline −120
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MTSU)+300+300
Moneyline (FIU)−417−417
Spread (FIU)−9.5down −10.5
Total45.5up 46.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Middle Tennessee beat Florida International 26–23 in college football Week 8, on Tuesday, October 20 at 7:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Middle Tennessee at +300 and Florida International at −417.
Our model predicted a final score of MTSU 14, FIU 42. Its picks: Florida International to win (−435), lost; Florida International −10.5 (−112), lost; over 45.5 points (−123), won. The best pick was Florida International to win, at 91% confidence.