Moneyline
FIU MLodds down −222
Won 61%
FIU wins the game.
Confidence61%
Model53.4%
SportsbooksOdds65.3%
Edge−11.9
Missouri State vs Florida International prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MOST | 0 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 20 |
| FIU | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 23 |
MISSOURI ST 47%
Pre-game win chance
53% FIU
FIU by 3 · 45 points
Updated Nov 7, 8:41 PM ET
Missouri St vs FIU picks
3 picks · FIU by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
MOST +11.5odds down −256
Won 78%
Missouri St wins, or loses by 11 points or fewer.
Confidence78%
Model75.4%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+7.3
Total
Under 57.5−250
Won 74%
The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model69.3%
SportsbooksOdds68.3%
Edge+1.0
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Missouri St0777721
FIU710071724
Most likely final scoresMOST 21–24 FIU 0.6%MOST 27–30 FIU 0.5%MOST 21–28 FIU 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
Missouri StFIU
Offense
350▼ 312
Total yards
▲ 494378
220▲ 225
Passing yards
▼ 218242
130▼ 87
Rushing yards
▲ 276136
19▼ 18
First downs
= 2020
Scoring
3▼ 0
Touchdowns
▼ 23
2▼ 0
Passing touchdowns
▼ 02
1▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▲ 21
0▲ 4
Field goals made
▲ 31
Ball security
1= 1
Turnovers
▲ 21
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
= 11
1▼ 0
Fumbles lost
= 11
0
Sacks allowed
0
60= 60
Penalty yards
▲ 11765
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 277.5
Proj. 350
72%
Won · 312
Passing yards
Over 163.5
Proj. 221
72%
Won · 225
Rushing yards
Over 77.5
Proj. 130
72%
Won · 87
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Won · 18
Total yards
Over 305.5
Proj. 378
72%
Won · 494
Passing yards
Over 184.5
Proj. 242
72%
Won · 218
Rushing yards
Over 84.5
Proj. 136
72%
Won · 276
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
72%
Won · 20
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Missouri St
QB
Henry Belin IV12/18 · 148 pass yds · 1.5 TD · 0.5 INT
148pass yds
RB
Connor Lair10 carries · 44 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
44rush yds
WR/TE
Isaiah Myers5 rec · 104 yds · 1.3 TD
104rec yds
WR/TE
Jmariyae Robinson6 rec · 56 yds · 0.2 TD
56rec yds
FIU
QB
J.J. Kohl19/30 · 220 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
220pass yds
RB
Devonte Lyons13 carries · 73 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 3 rec
73rush yds
WR/TE
Maguire Anderson5 rec · 80 yds · 0.6 TD
80rec yds
WR/TE
Kyle Mcneal4 rec · 49 yds · 0.3 TD
49rec yds
Road form. Missouri St is 0-4 on the road this season, losing by 26.0 points a game.
Home form. FIU is 3-1 at home, scoring 24.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at FIU −5.5 and is now FIU −4.5, a 1-point move toward Missouri St.
Rest. Missouri St comes in on 11 days’ rest, FIU on 7.
Streak. FIU has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
Missouri StateFlorida International
Missouri StateFlorida International
3-5Record3-5
0-4 roadRoad / home3-1 home
W1StreakL3
11 daysRest7 days
24.4Points per game18.9
30.9Points allowed20.4
−52
Point differentialseason to date
−12
234Passing yards / game241
129Rushing yards / game115
36%3rd-down conversion44%
8Takeaways9
0Sacks0
10Turnovers11
186Passing yards / game228
84Rushing yards / game147
27%3rd-down conversion49%
4Takeaways7
0Sacks0
8Turnovers4
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Missouri St’s road games with FIU’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Missouri St
3-5
LLWLW
Wk 9Oct 27vs SHSU
Sam Houston3Missouri St24
Sam Houston moneyline +170Missouri St moneyline −227
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20@ DEL
Missouri St38Delaware61
Missouri St moneyline +148Delaware moneyline −182
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 14vs KENN
Kennesaw St21Missouri St24
Kennesaw St moneyline −152Missouri St moneyline +112
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ WKU
Missouri St13Western KY34
Missouri St: no odds on recordWestern KY: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ SMU
Missouri St24SMU34
Missouri St: no odds on recordSMU: no odds on record
LFINAL
FIU
3-5
WWLLL
Wk 9Oct 31@ LIB
FIU10Liberty49
FIU moneyline +450Liberty moneyline −769
LFINAL
Wk 8Oct 20vs MTSU
MTSU26FIU23
MTSU moneyline +300FIU moneyline −417
LFINAL
Wk 7Oct 13@ JVST
FIU24Jax State27
FIU moneyline +113Jax State moneyline −154
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 7vs NMSU
New Mexico St3FIU22
New Mexico St moneyline +195FIU moneyline −256
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs LI
Long Island3FIU20
Long Island: no odds on recordFIU: no odds on record
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameC-USA
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
MISSOURI ST
1
Wins
Avg. points28.0 – 21.0
Avg. total49.0 pts
Over closing total0 of 1
0
FIU
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 10Missouri St home
FIU21Missouri St28
FIU moneyline +122Missouri St moneyline −156
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MOST)+160+160
Moneyline (FIU)−217−217
Spread (FIU)−5.5up −4.5
Total49.5up 50.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Florida International beat Missouri State 23–20 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 4:00 PM ET. The moneyline had Missouri State at +160 and Florida International at −217.
Our model predicted a final score of Missouri St 21, FIU 24. Its picks: Florida International to win (−222), won; Missouri State +11.5 (−256), won; under 57.5 points (−250), won. The best pick was Missouri State +11.5, at 78% confidence.