Missouri State vs Delaware Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MOST	14	14	7	3	38
DEL	7	17	21	16	61

Missouri St vs Delaware picks

3 picks · Delaware by 1 · 67 points · 2 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

DEL MLodds down −179 Won 73%

Delaware wins the game.

Confidence73%

Model56.1% SportsbooksOdds55.9% Edge+0.2

Spread

MOST +2.5odds up +107 Lost 68%

Missouri St wins, or loses by two points or fewer.

Confidence68%

Model48.4% SportsbooksOdds48.5% Edge−0.1

Total

Over 50.5odds down −167 Won 74%

The two teams score 51 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model54.7% SportsbooksOdds54.2% Edge+0.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Missouri St710791733

Delaware778121434

Most likely final scoresMOST 33–34 DEL 0.2%MOST 30–31 DEL 0.2%MOST 27–28 DEL 0.2%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Missouri StDelaware

Offense

389▲ 431 Total yards ▲ 472404

257▲ 337 Passing yards ▼ 250271

132▼ 94 Rushing yards ▲ 222133

21▲ 22 First downs ▲ 2422

Scoring

4▲ 5 Touchdowns ▲ 84

2= 2 Passing touchdowns ▲ 52

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

1= 1 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers = 11

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

60▲ 85 Penalty yards ▼ 4067

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 315.5 Proj. 389 72% Won · 431

Passing yards Over 199.5 Proj. 257 72% Won · 337

Rushing yards Over 79.5 Proj. 132 72% Won · 94

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71% Won · 22

Total yards Over 330.5 Proj. 404 72% Won · 472

Passing yards Over 213.5 Proj. 271 72% Won · 250

Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 133 72% Won · 222

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 22 74% Won · 24

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Missouri St

QB Henry Belin IV9/15 · 107 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.4 INT 107pass yds

RB Ramone Green Jr.9 carries · 37 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 37rush yds

WR/TE Isaiah Myers5 rec · 108 yds · 1.3 TD 108rec yds

WR/TE Jmariyae Robinson6 rec · 46 yds · 0.0 TD 46rec yds

Delaware

QB Tyler Bell14/22 · 163 pass yds · 1.2 TD · 0.3 INT 163pass yds

RB Jo'Nathan Silver11 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 1 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Sean Wilson5 rec · 56 yds · 0.5 TD 56rec yds

WR/TE Donovan Lewis3 rec · 34 yds · 0.2 TD 34rec yds

Road form. Missouri St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 27.0 points a game.

Home form. Delaware is 2-1 at home, scoring 26.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at DEL −2.5 and is now DEL −3.5, a 1-point move toward Delaware.

Rest. Missouri St comes in on 6 days’ rest, Delaware on 7.

Streak. Delaware has lost 3 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Missouri StateDelaware

2-4Record2-4

0-3 roadRoad / home2-1 home

W1StreakL3

6 daysRest7 days

22.2Points per game22.8

30.5Points allowed26.8

−50 Point differentialseason to date −24

225Passing yards / game271

135Rushing yards / game94

35%3rd-down conversion32%

6Takeaways8

0Sacks0

7Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Missouri St’s road games with Delaware’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.