Minnesota vs Penn State Prediction & Picks

Minnesota vs Penn State picks

3 picks · Penn State by 3 · 45 points

MoneylineBest pick

PSU MLodds down −417 93%

Penn State wins the game.

Confidence93%

Model72.8% SportsbooksOdds76.5% Edge−3.7

Spread

MINN +17.5odds down −270 79%

Minnesota wins, or loses by 17 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model67.9% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge−1.3

Total

Over 36.5odds up −238 74%

The two teams score 37 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model70.6% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+1.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Minnesota0777721

Penn State07710724

Most likely final scoresMINN 21–24 PSU 0.6%MINN 21–28 PSU 0.6%MINN 14–28 PSU 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MinnesotaPenn State

Offense

279 Total yards 383

169 Passing yards 230

110 Rushing yards 153

15 First downs 20

Scoring

2 Touchdowns 3

1 Passing touchdowns 2

1 Rushing touchdowns 1

2 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

48 Penalty yards 49

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 206.5 Proj. 279 72%

Passing yards Over 112.5 Proj. 170 72%

Rushing yards Over 57.5 Proj. 110 72%

First downs Over 11.5 Proj. 15 71%

Total yards Over 309.5 Proj. 383 72%

Passing yards Over 172.5 Proj. 230 72%

Rushing yards Over 100.5 Proj. 153 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 20 74%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Minnesota

QB Drake Lindsey17/30 · 169 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 169pass yds

RB Darius Taylor13 carries · 39 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 39rush yds

WR/TE Jalen Smith2 rec · 45 yds · 0.3 TD 45rec yds

WR/TE Javon Tracy5 rec · 40 yds · 0.1 TD 40rec yds

Penn State

QB Rocco Becht17/28 · 227 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 227pass yds

RB Carson Hansen12 carries · 67 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 1 rec 67rush yds

WR/TE Chase Sowell5 rec · 101 yds · 1.2 TD 101rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Rappleyea4 rec · 36 yds · 0.7 TD 36rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at PSU −8.5 and is now PSU −9.5, a 1-point move toward Penn State.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

MinnesotaPenn State

5-4Record5-4

L2StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

24.7Points per game28.9

22.0Points allowed19.3

14th Big TenConference11th Big Ten

+24 Point differentialseason to date +86

209Passing yards / game245

99Rushing yards / game151

31%3rd-down conversion38%

16Takeaways14

0Sacks0

10Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Minnesota’s road games with Penn State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.