Minnesota vs Indiana Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	T
MINN	3	7	0	6	0	16
IU	7	0	3	6	7	23

Minnesota vs Indiana picks

3 picks · Indiana by 28 · 42 points · 2 of 3 won

Moneyline

IU ML−2000 Won 95%

Indiana wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model94.3% SportsbooksOdds93.6% Edge+0.7

Spread

IU −10.5odds down −333 Lost 84%

Indiana wins by 11 points or more.

Confidence84%

Model78.1% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+8.8

TotalBest pick

Over 35.5odds up −213 Won 83%

The two teams score 36 or more points between them.

Confidence83%

Model77.5% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+8.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Minnesota070077

Indiana7140142135

Most likely final scoresMINN 7–35 IU 1.0%MINN 7–42 IU 0.9%MINN 14–42 IU 0.8%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MinnesotaIndiana

Offense

247▼ 215 Total yards ▲ 419401

177▼ 120 Passing yards ▲ 275220

70▲ 95 Rushing yards ▼ 144181

14▼ 10 First downs ▲ 2120

Scoring

1= 1 Touchdowns ▼ 24

1= 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

0= 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 02

0▲ 3 Field goals made ▲ 32

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown = 11

1= 1 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

47▲ 60 Penalty yards ▲ 4844

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 174.5 Proj. 247 72% Won · 215

Passing yards Over 120.5 Proj. 177 72% Lost · 120

Rushing yards Over 17.5 Proj. 70 72% Won · 95

First downs Over 10.5 Proj. 14 73% Lost · 10

Total yards Over 327.5 Proj. 401 72% Won · 419

Passing yards Over 162.5 Proj. 220 72% Won · 275

Rushing yards Over 128.5 Proj. 181 72% Won · 144

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 72% Won · 21

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Minnesota

QB Drake Lindsey19/32 · 177 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 177pass yds

RB Darius Taylor14 carries · 23 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 3 rec 23rush yds

WR/TE Javon Tracy5 rec · 47 yds · 0.1 TD 47rec yds

WR/TE Noah Jennings4 rec · 45 yds · 0.1 TD 45rec yds

Indiana

QB Josh Hoover16/26 · 217 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 217pass yds

RB Turbo Richard14 carries · 89 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 1 rec 89rush yds

WR/TE Charlie Becker6 rec · 92 yds · 0.6 TD 92rec yds

WR/TE Nick Marsh5 rec · 83 yds · 1.0 TD 83rec yds

Road form. Minnesota is 1-1 on the road this season, losing by 12.5 points a game.

Home form. Indiana is 4-1 at home, scoring 37.8 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at IU −22.5 and is now IU −20.5, a 2-point move toward Minnesota.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

MinnesotaIndiana

5-2Record7-1

1-1 roadRoad / home4-1 home

W1StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

26.6Points per game33.6

20.1Points allowed12.0

+45 Point differentialseason to date +173

222Passing yards / game228

100Rushing yards / game192

34%3rd-down conversion44%

12Takeaways8

0Sacks0

8Turnovers4

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Minnesota’s road games with Indiana’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.