Michigan vs Rutgers Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MICH	7	7	7	7	28
RUTG	3	10	0	8	21

Michigan vs Rutgers picks

3 picks · Michigan by 3 · 45 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

MICH MLodds down −1000 Won 91%

Michigan wins the game.

Confidence91%

Model77.5% SportsbooksOdds86.7% Edge−9.2

Spread

RUTG +21.5odds up −192 Won 80%

Rutgers wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.

Confidence80%

Model70.8% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+2.7

Total

Over 40.5odds up −227 Won 74%

The two teams score 41 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model74.7% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+5.5

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Michigan010771024

Rutgers014071421

Most likely final scoresMICH 24–21 RUTG 0.6%MICH 28–21 RUTG 0.6%MICH 27–24 RUTG 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MichiganRutgers

Offense

393▲ 427 Total yards ▼ 249317

198▲ 266 Passing yards ▼ 123193

195▼ 161 Rushing yards ▲ 126124

20▲ 23 First downs ▼ 918

Scoring

3▲ 4 Touchdowns ▼ 23

1= 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 11

1▼ 0 Field goals made ▲ 20

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▼ 01

0 Sacks allowed 0

51▲ 90 Penalty yards ▼ 3543

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 319.5 Proj. 393 72% Won · 427

Passing yards Over 140.5 Proj. 198 72% Won · 266

Rushing yards Over 142.5 Proj. 195 72% Won · 161

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 20 71% Won · 23

Total yards Over 243.5 Proj. 317 72% Won · 249

Passing yards Over 136.5 Proj. 193 72% Lost · 123

Rushing yards Over 71.5 Proj. 124 72% Won · 126

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 72% Lost · 9

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Michigan

QB Tommy Carr9/14 · 93 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.3 INT 93pass yds

RB Jordan Marshall11 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 1 rec 64rush yds

WR/TE JJ Buchanan5 rec · 82 yds · 0.6 TD 82rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Marsh6 rec · 59 yds · 0.2 TD 59rec yds

Rutgers

QB AJ Surace10/18 · 113 pass yds · 1.4 TD · 0.8 INT 113pass yds

RB Antwan Raymond17 carries · 72 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 72rush yds

WR/TE KJ Duff6 rec · 81 yds · 0.9 TD 81rec yds

WR/TE Dyzier Carter3 rec · 34 yds · 0.0 TD 34rec yds

Road form. Michigan is 0-1 on the road this season, losing by 6.0 points a game.

Home form. Rutgers is 1-3 at home, scoring 32.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at RUTG +14.5 and is now RUTG +16.5, a 2-point move toward Michigan.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

MichiganRutgers

4-3Record2-5

0-1 roadRoad / home1-3 home

L1StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

20.3Points per game28.7

15.7Points allowed33.3

+32 Point differentialseason to date −32

166Passing yards / game242

135Rushing yards / game153

38%3rd-down conversion41%

9Takeaways7

0Sacks0

13Turnovers14

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Michigan’s road games with Rutgers’ home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.