Michigan vs Oregon Prediction & Picks

Michigan vs Oregon picks

3 picks · Oregon by 28 · 42 points

Moneyline

ORE MLodds down −476 95%

Oregon wins the game.

Confidence95%

Model79.0% SportsbooksOdds80.7% Edge−1.7

SpreadBest pick

ORE −4.5−250 76%

Oregon wins by five points or more.

Confidence76%

Model68.2% SportsbooksOdds68.0% Edge+0.2

Total

Over 33.5odds up −200 74%

The two teams score 34 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.1% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge+4.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Michigan070077

Oregon714772135

Most likely final scoresMICH 7–35 ORE 0.9%MICH 14–21 ORE 0.7%MICH 7–31 ORE 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MichiganOregon

Offense

309 Total yards 364

192 Passing yards 232

117 Rushing yards 132

17 First downs 19

Scoring

1 Touchdowns 4

0 Passing touchdowns 2

1 Rushing touchdowns 2

0 Field goals made 2

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

49 Penalty yards 47

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 236.5 Proj. 309 72%

Passing yards Over 135.5 Proj. 192 72%

Rushing yards Over 64.5 Proj. 117 72%

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 72%

Total yards Over 291.5 Proj. 364 72%

Passing yards Over 174.5 Proj. 232 72%

Rushing yards Over 80.5 Proj. 132 72%

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 70%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Michigan

QB Tommy Carr16/26 · 180 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.5 INT 180pass yds

RB Savion Hiter11 carries · 41 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 1 rec 41rush yds

WR/TE JJ Buchanan5 rec · 69 yds · 0.0 TD 69rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Marsh5 rec · 49 yds · 0.0 TD 49rec yds

Oregon

QB Dylan Raiola16/25 · 184 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT 184pass yds

RB Dierre Hill Jr.12 carries · 64 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 3 rec 64rush yds

WR/TE Dakorien Moore5 rec · 61 yds · 0.9 TD 61rec yds

WR/TE Jamari Johnson4 rec · 47 yds · 0.4 TD 47rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at ORE −5.5 and is now ORE −11.5, a 6-point move toward Oregon.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Tale of the tape

MichiganOregon

5-4Record6-3

L1StreakW2

7 daysRest7 days

19.6Points per game34.1

16.2Points allowed22.1

13th Big TenConference6th Big Ten

+30 Point differentialseason to date +108

174Passing yards / game285

129Rushing yards / game135

42%3rd-down conversion38%

9Takeaways13

0Sacks0

17Turnovers13

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Michigan’s road games with Oregon’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.