Michigan State vs UCLA Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MSU	7	0	0	3	10
UCLA	0	14	14	0	28

Michigan St vs UCLA picks

3 picks · UCLA by 7 · 49 points · 3 of 3 won

Moneyline

UCLA MLodds down −1111 Won 94%

UCLA wins the game.

Confidence94%

Model75.7% SportsbooksOdds86.2% Edge−10.5

SpreadBest pick

MSU +21.5odds up −213 Won 77%

Michigan St wins, or loses by 21 points or fewer.

Confidence77%

Model72.9% SportsbooksOdds69.2% Edge+3.7

Total

Over 37.5odds up −204 Won 74%

The two teams score 38 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model79.9% SportsbooksOdds70.5% Edge+9.4

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Michigan St77701421

UCLA014681428

Most likely final scoresMSU 21–28 UCLA 0.7%MSU 21–24 UCLA 0.6%MSU 24–31 UCLA 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Michigan StUCLA

Offense

310▼ 156 Total yards ▲ 443399

195▼ 109 Passing yards ▼ 198218

115▼ 47 Rushing yards ▲ 245181

18▼ 11 First downs ▲ 2521

Scoring

3▼ 1 Touchdowns = 44

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns ▼ 12

1▼ 0 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 32

Ball security

1▲ 3 Turnovers ▲ 21

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1= 1 Fumbles lost ▲ 21

0 Sacks allowed 0

49▲ 79 Penalty yards ▲ 6054

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 236.5 Proj. 310 72% Lost · 156

Passing yards Over 137.5 Proj. 195 72% Lost · 109

Rushing yards Over 62.5 Proj. 115 72% Lost · 47

First downs Over 14.5 Proj. 18 71% Lost · 11

Total yards Over 325.5 Proj. 399 72% Won · 443

Passing yards Over 160.5 Proj. 218 72% Won · 198

Rushing yards Over 128.5 Proj. 181 72% Won · 245

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74% Won · 25

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Michigan St

QB Alessio Milivojevic16/27 · 181 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.6 INT 181pass yds

RB Jaziun Patterson13 carries · 54 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 54rush yds

WR/TE Jayden Savoury4 rec · 40 yds · 0.0 TD 40rec yds

WR/TE Chrishon McCray3 rec · 32 yds · 0.3 TD 32rec yds

UCLA

QB Ty Dieffenbach13/19 · 143 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.2 INT 143pass yds

RB Wayne Knight13 carries · 74 rush yds · 1.0 TD · 3 rec 74rush yds

WR/TE Semaj Morgan4 rec · 53 yds · 0.8 TD 53rec yds

WR/TE Aidan Mizell2 rec · 51 yds · 1.0 TD 51rec yds

Road form. Michigan St is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 22.5 points a game.

Home form. UCLA is 3-0 at home, scoring 32.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UCLA −12.5 and is now UCLA −16.5, a 4-point move toward UCLA.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Michigan St has lost 5 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Michigan StateUCLA

2-5Record6-0

0-2 roadRoad / home3-0 home

L5StreakW6

7 daysRest7 days

21.3Points per game35.5

25.4Points allowed16.2

−29 Point differentialseason to date +116

192Passing yards / game215

119Rushing yards / game231

40%3rd-down conversion49%

3Takeaways19

0Sacks0

8Turnovers9

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Michigan St’s road games with UCLA’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.