Michigan State vs Michigan Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MSU	0	6	3	6	15
MICH	0	0	0	6	6

Michigan St vs Michigan picks

3 picks · Michigan by 28 · 42 points · 0 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

MICH MLodds down −769 Lost 92%

Michigan wins the game.

Confidence92%

Model82.5% SportsbooksOdds85.1% Edge−2.6

Spread

MICH −6.5odds down −278 Lost 79%

Michigan wins by seven points or more.

Confidence79%

Model69.1% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge+2.0

Total

Over 33.5odds up −238 Lost 74%

The two teams score 34 or more points between them.

Confidence74%

Model75.0% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+6.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Michigan St700077

Michigan714772135

Most likely final scoresMSU 7–35 MICH 0.8%MSU 7–31 MICH 0.7%MSU 10–38 MICH 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

Michigan StMichigan

Offense

259▲ 298 Total yards ▼ 192380

165▲ 188 Passing yards ▼ 138208

94▲ 110 Rushing yards ▼ 54172

15▲ 17 First downs ▼ 1321

Scoring

1▼ 0 Touchdowns ▼ 14

1▼ 0 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

0= 0 Rushing touchdowns ▼ 12

0▲ 5 Field goals made ▼ 02

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers ▲ 41

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost ▲ 21

0 Sacks allowed 0

47▲ 70 Penalty yards ▼ 2050

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 185.5 Proj. 259 72% Won · 298

Passing yards Over 107.5 Proj. 165 72% Won · 188

Rushing yards Over 41.5 Proj. 94 72% Won · 110

First downs Over 11.5 Proj. 15 73% Won · 17

Total yards Over 306.5 Proj. 380 72% Lost · 192

Passing yards Over 151.5 Proj. 208 72% Lost · 138

Rushing yards Over 119.5 Proj. 172 72% Lost · 54

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 75% Lost · 13

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Michigan St

QB Leo Hannan11/16 · 101 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.4 INT 101pass yds

RB Jaziun Patterson16 carries · 69 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 2 rec 69rush yds

WR/TE Chrishon McCray3 rec · 35 yds · 0.2 TD 35rec yds

WR/TE Jayden Savoury3 rec · 29 yds · 0.0 TD 29rec yds

Michigan

QB Tommy Carr11/17 · 136 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.2 INT 136pass yds

RB Savion Hiter13 carries · 59 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 59rush yds

WR/TE JJ Buchanan5 rec · 78 yds · 1.3 TD 78rec yds

WR/TE Andrew Marsh6 rec · 60 yds · 0.3 TD 60rec yds

Road form. Michigan St is 0-3 on the road this season, losing by 21.0 points a game.

Home form. Michigan is 4-2 at home, scoring 21.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at MICH −13.5 and is now MICH −14.5, a 1-point move toward Michigan.

Rest. Michigan St comes in on 14 days’ rest, Michigan on 7.

Streak. Michigan St has lost 6 in a row.

Tale of the tape

Michigan StateMichigan

2-6Record5-3

0-3 roadRoad / home4-2 home

L6StreakW1

14 daysRest7 days

19.9Points per game21.3

25.8Points allowed16.4

−47 Point differentialseason to date +39

181Passing yards / game178

110Rushing yards / game138

38%3rd-down conversion44%

5Takeaways9

0Sacks0

11Turnovers13

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Michigan St’s road games with Michigan’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.