Moneyline
ND MLodds down −294
Won 93%
Notre Dame wins the game.
Confidence93%
Model66.4%
SportsbooksOdds67.0%
Edge−0.6
Miami vs Notre Dame prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 3 | 14 | 7 | 24 |
| ND | 3 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
MIAMI 34%
Pre-game win chance
66% NOTRE DAME
ND by 7 · 63 points
Updated Nov 7, 11:12 PM ET
Miami vs Notre Dame picks
3 picks · Notre Dame by 7 · 63 points · 3 of 3 wonSpreadBest pick
ND +2.5odds down −345
Won 77%
Notre Dame wins, or loses by two points or fewer.
Confidence77%
Model70.2%
SportsbooksOdds69.3%
Edge+0.9
Total
Under 64.5odds down −303
Won 74%
The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.
Confidence74%
Model71.0%
SportsbooksOdds67.5%
Edge+3.5
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Miami77771428
Notre Dame777141435
Most likely final scoresMIA 28–35 ND 0.6%MIA 28–31 ND 0.6%MIA 21–28 ND 0.6%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line
MiamiNotre Dame
Offense
347▲ 403
Total yards
▲ 412398
216▲ 302
Passing yards
▲ 319269
131▼ 101
Rushing yards
▼ 93129
20▲ 21
First downs
▲ 2221
Scoring
4▼ 3
Touchdowns
= 44
2▲ 3
Passing touchdowns
▲ 32
2▼ 0
Rushing touchdowns
▼ 12
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▲ 2
Turnovers
▼ 01
1= 1
Interceptions thrown
▼ 01
1= 1
Fumbles lost
▼ 01
0
Sacks allowed
0
54▼ 30
Penalty yards
▲ 5647
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 274.5
Proj. 347
72%
Won · 403
Passing yards
Over 159.5
Proj. 217
72%
Won · 302
Rushing yards
Over 78.5
Proj. 131
72%
Won · 101
First downs
Over 16.5
Proj. 20
70%
Won · 21
Total yards
Over 324.5
Proj. 398
72%
Won · 412
Passing yards
Over 211.5
Proj. 269
72%
Won · 319
Rushing yards
Over 76.5
Proj. 129
72%
Won · 93
First downs
Over 17.5
Proj. 21
71%
Won · 22
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Miami
QB
Darian Mensah19/27 · 213 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT
213pass yds
RB
Mark Fletcher Jr.14 carries · 47 rush yds · 1.2 TD · 1 rec
47rush yds
WR/TE
Malachi Toney7 rec · 84 yds · 1.1 TD
84rec yds
WR/TE
Cooper Barkate3 rec · 35 yds · 0.2 TD
35rec yds
Notre Dame
QB
C.J. Carr21/31 · 251 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.6 INT
251pass yds
RB
Nolan James Jr.11 carries · 48 rush yds · 0.8 TD · 2 rec
48rush yds
WR/TE
Jordan Faison5 rec · 67 yds · 0.3 TD
67rec yds
WR/TE
Jaden Greathouse4 rec · 52 yds · 0.3 TD
52rec yds
Road form. Miami is 4-0 on the road this season, winning by 20.8 points a game.
Home form. Notre Dame is 4-0 at home, scoring 44.5 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at ND −3.5 and is now ND −7.5, a 4-point move toward Notre Dame.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Miami has won 8 in a row.
Tale of the tape
MiamiNotre Dame
MiamiNotre Dame
8-0Record7-1
4-0 roadRoad / home4-0 home
W8StreakW1
7 daysRest7 days
47.6Points per game40.4
17.8Points allowed13.4
+239
Point differentialseason to date
+216
332Passing yards / game257
203Rushing yards / game186
55%3rd-down conversion43%
10Takeaways16
0Sacks0
4Turnovers2
287Passing yards / game268
153Rushing yards / game188
50%3rd-down conversion48%
4Takeaways11
0Sacks0
2Turnovers0
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Miami’s road games with Notre Dame’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Miami
8-0
WWWWW
Wk 9Oct 31@ UNC
Miami38North Carolina35
Miami moneyline −714North Carolina moneyline +425
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 24vs PITT
Pitt23Miami52
Pitt moneyline +1100Miami moneyline −2500
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs FSU
Florida St35Miami43
Florida St moneyline +628Miami moneyline −2000
WF/OT
Wk 5Oct 3@ CLEM
Miami41Clemson13
Miami: no odds on recordClemson: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs CMU
C Michigan3Miami52
C Michigan: no odds on recordMiami: no odds on record
WFINAL
Notre Dame
7-1
WWWLW
Wk 9Oct 31@ NAVY
Notre Dame35Navy13
Notre Dame moneyline −10000Navy moneyline +1900
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17@ BYU
Notre Dame24BYU28
Notre Dame moneyline −476BYU moneyline +350
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs STAN
Stanford7Notre Dame58
Stanford: no odds on recordNotre Dame: no odds on record
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ UNC
Notre Dame37North Carolina26
Notre Dame moneyline −2500North Carolina moneyline +820
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26@ PUR
Notre Dame49Purdue10
Notre Dame moneyline −5000Purdue moneyline +1300
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameACC
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
FBS Independents
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
MIAMI
1
Wins
Avg. points27.0 – 24.0
Avg. total51.0 pts
0
NOTRE DAME
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 1Hard Rock Stadium
Miami27Notre Dame24
Miami: no odds on recordNotre Dame: no odds on record
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MIA)+220+220
Moneyline (ND)−278−278
Spread (ND)−3.5down −7.5
Total55.5down 54.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Notre Dame beat Miami 31–24 in college football Week 10, on Saturday, November 7 at 7:30 PM ET. The moneyline had Miami at +220 and Notre Dame at −278.
Our model predicted a final score of Miami 28, Notre Dame 35. Its picks: Notre Dame to win (−294), won; Notre Dame +2.5 (−345), won; under 64.5 points (−303), won. The best pick was Notre Dame +2.5, at 77% confidence.