Miami vs North Carolina Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MIA	7	10	7	14	38
UNC	0	14	7	14	35

Miami vs North Carolina picks

3 picks · Miami by 28 · 42 points · 1 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

MIA MLodds up −667 Won 92%

Miami wins the game.

Confidence92%

Model85.9% SportsbooksOdds87.8% Edge−1.9

Spread

MIA −7.5odds up −200 Lost 80%

Miami wins by eight points or more.

Confidence80%

Model69.6% SportsbooksOdds67.1% Edge+2.5

Total

Under 60.5odds up −238 Lost 74%

The two teams score 60 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model74.7% SportsbooksOdds68.1% Edge+6.6

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Miami0211402135

North Carolina070077

Most likely final scoresMIA 35–7 UNC 0.8%MIA 42–14 UNC 0.7%MIA 31–7 UNC 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 19 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MiamiNorth Carolina

Offense

448▼ 416 Total yards ▲ 407299

270▲ 274 Passing yards ▲ 341218

178▼ 142 Rushing yards ▼ 6681

24▲ 25 First downs ▲ 2717

Scoring

4▲ 5 Touchdowns ▲ 51

2▲ 3 Passing touchdowns ▲ 41

2= 2 Rushing touchdowns ▲ 10

2▼ 1 Field goals made = 00

Ball security

1▼ 0 Turnovers = 11

1▼ 0 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

58▼ 30 Penalty yards ▼ 3751

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 375.5 Proj. 448 72% Won · 416

Passing yards Over 213.5 Proj. 270 72% Won · 274

Rushing yards Over 125.5 Proj. 178 72% Won · 142

First downs Over 20.5 Proj. 24 71% Won · 25

Total yards Over 226.5 Proj. 299 72% Won · 407

Passing yards Over 161.5 Proj. 219 72% Won · 341

Rushing yards Over 28.5 Proj. 81 72% Won · 66

First downs Over 13.5 Proj. 17 70% Won · 27

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Miami

QB Darian Mensah22/31 · 242 pass yds · 1.7 TD · 0.6 INT 242pass yds

RB Mark Fletcher Jr.13 carries · 58 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec 58rush yds

WR/TE Malachi Toney9 rec · 99 yds · 0.8 TD 99rec yds

WR/TE Cooper Barkate3 rec · 32 yds · 0.3 TD 32rec yds

North Carolina

QB Billy Edwards Jr.19/32 · 215 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.7 INT 215pass yds

RB Demon June8 carries · 25 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec 25rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Shipp7 rec · 78 yds · 0.2 TD 78rec yds

WR/TE Jelani Thurman5 rec · 49 yds · 0.4 TD 49rec yds

Road form. Miami is 3-0 on the road this season, winning by 26.7 points a game.

Home form. North Carolina is 1-2 at home, scoring 30.3 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at UNC +14.5 and is now UNC +13.5, a 1-point move toward North Carolina.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Miami has won 7 in a row.

Tale of the tape

MiamiNorth Carolina

7-0Record4-3

3-0 roadRoad / home1-2 home

W7StreakL1

7 daysRest7 days

49.0Points per game24.4

15.3Points allowed20.9

+236 Point differentialseason to date +25

341Passing yards / game222

211Rushing yards / game114

55%3rd-down conversion40%

9Takeaways8

0Sacks0

4Turnovers10

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Miami’s road games with North Carolina’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.