Moneyline
USF MLodds down +146
53%
South Florida wins the game.
Confidence53%
Model50.8%
SportsbooksOdds33.8%
Edge+17.0
Memphis vs South Florida prediction, picks and odds
SpreadMEM −3.5
Total50.5 points
Kickoff in1d 4h
Updated 3:18 PM ET
Memphis vs South Florida picks
3 picks · South Florida by 3 · 45 pointsSpread
USF +12.5odds down −303
85%
South Florida wins, or loses by 12 points or fewer.
Confidence85%
Model79.7%
SportsbooksOdds68.1%
Edge+11.6
TotalBest pick
Over 41.5odds down −278
80%
The two teams score 42 or more points between them.
Confidence80%
Model72.9%
SportsbooksOdds68.6%
Edge+4.3
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Memphis7077721
South Florida07314724
Most likely final scoresMEM 21–24 USF 0.6%MEM 21–28 USF 0.5%MEM 24–31 USF 0.5%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line
MemphisSouth Florida
Offense
409
Total yards
349
234
Passing yards
189
175
Rushing yards
160
22
First downs
19
Scoring
3
Touchdowns
3
2
Passing touchdowns
1
1
Rushing touchdowns
2
0
Field goals made
1
Ball security
1
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions thrown
1
1
Fumbles lost
1
0
Sacks allowed
0
49
Penalty yards
50
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 335.5
Proj. 409
72%
Passing yards
Over 176.5
Proj. 234
72%
Rushing yards
Over 122.5
Proj. 175
72%
First downs
Over 18.5
Proj. 22
72%
Total yards
Over 276.5
Proj. 349
72%
Passing yards
Over 132.5
Proj. 189
72%
Rushing yards
Over 107.5
Proj. 160
72%
First downs
Over 14.5
Proj. 19
74%
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Memphis
QB
Marcus Stokes19/30 · 223 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.5 INT
223pass yds
RB
Jaylin Carter15 carries · 75 rush yds · 0.3 TD · 2 rec
75rush yds
WR/TE
Braylon Burnside4 rec · 53 yds · 0.2 TD
53rec yds
WR/TE
Jemyri Davis3 rec · 42 yds · 0.4 TD
42rec yds
South Florida
QB
Luke Kromenhoek9/13 · 103 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.0 INT
103pass yds
RB
D.J. Crowther19 carries · 101 rush yds · 0.9 TD · 2 rec
101rush yds
WR/TE
Bryson Rodgers4 rec · 49 yds · 0.5 TD
49rec yds
WR/TE
Cameron Seldon3 rec · 39 yds · 0.3 TD
39rec yds
Line move. The spread opened at USF +6.5 and is now USF +3.5, a 3-point move toward South Florida.
Rest. Memphis comes in on 13 days’ rest, South Florida on 6.
Tale of the tape
MemphisSouth Florida
MemphisSouth Florida
7-2Record6-3
W2StreakL1
13 daysRest6 days
37.6Points per game25.9
23.6Points allowed15.1
1st AmericanConference4th American
+126
Point differentialseason to date
+97
249Passing yards / game168
202Rushing yards / game148
42%3rd-down conversion37%
16Takeaways10
0Sacks0
12Turnovers4
325Passing yards / game173
199Rushing yards / game156
35%3rd-down conversion42%
6Takeaways8
0Sacks0
8Turnovers2
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Memphis’ road games with South Florida’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Memphis
7-2
WWLWW
Wk 9Oct 30vs ARMY
Army22Memphis49
Army moneyline +175Memphis moneyline −238
WFINAL
Wk 8Oct 22vs ECU
East Carolina34Memphis41
East Carolina moneyline +350Memphis moneyline −526
WF/OT
Wk 7Oct 16@ TULN
Memphis17Tulane31
Memphis moneyline −263Tulane moneyline +205
LFINAL
Wk 6Oct 10vs UAB
UAB13Memphis38
UAB moneyline +419Memphis moneyline −769
WFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3@ CLT
Memphis59Charlotte8
Memphis moneyline −1667Charlotte moneyline +660
WFINAL
South Florida
6-3
LLWWL
Wk 10Nov 6@ ECU
South Florida17East Carolina20
South Florida moneyline −110East Carolina moneyline −112
LFINAL
Wk 9Oct 31vs UAB
UAB10South Florida30
UAB moneyline +250South Florida moneyline −333
WFINAL
Wk 7Oct 17vs KENT
Kent State2South Florida29
Kent State moneyline +1100South Florida moneyline −3333
WFINAL
Wk 6Oct 8@ UTSA
South Florida24UTSA31
South Florida: no odds on recordUTSA: no odds on record
LFINAL
Wk 5Oct 3vs TEM
Temple17South Florida13
Temple moneyline +175South Florida moneyline −238
LFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standingsTeams in this gameAmerican
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Head-to-head
The last meeting · regular season and playoffs
MEMPHIS
1
Wins
Avg. points34.0 – 31.0
Avg. total65.0 pts
Over closing total1 of 1
0
SOUTH FLORIDA
Meetings · most recent first · closing moneyline beside each scoreMost recent first · closing moneyline
2025 · Wk 9Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
Memphis34South Florida31
Memphis moneyline −169South Florida moneyline +130
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MEM)−185−185
Moneyline (USF)+141+141
Spread (USF)+6.5down +3.5
Total48.5up 50.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Memphis visits South Florida in college football Week 11, on Thursday, November 12 at 8:00 PM ET. Memphis comes in at 7-2 and South Florida at 6-3. The moneyline has Memphis at −185 and South Florida at +141.
Our model predicts a final score of Memphis 21, South Florida 24. Its picks: South Florida to win (+146); South Florida +12.5 (−303); over 41.5 points (−278). The best pick is over 41.5 points, at 80% confidence.