Maryland vs Purdue Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
MD	0	7	21	6	34
PUR	3	9	7	10	29

Maryland vs Purdue picks

3 picks · Purdue by 7 · 49 points · 0 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

PUR MLodds up −217 Lost 84%

Purdue wins the game.

Confidence84%

Model66.8% SportsbooksOdds67.2% Edge−0.4

Spread

PUR −6.5odds up −103 Lost 69%

Purdue wins by seven points or more.

Confidence69%

Model49.9% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge−0.1

Total

Under 57.5odds down −119 Lost 74%

The two teams score 57 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model54.2% SportsbooksOdds50.0% Edge+4.2

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Maryland77701421

Purdue0140141428

Most likely final scoresMD 21–28 PUR 0.7%MD 24–31 PUR 0.5%MD 14–28 PUR 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

MarylandPurdue

Offense

369▲ 390 Total yards ▲ 425383

231▲ 253 Passing yards ▲ 296238

138▼ 137 Rushing yards ▼ 129145

19▼ 12 First downs ▲ 2621

Scoring

3▲ 5 Touchdowns ▼ 24

1▲ 2 Passing touchdowns ▼ 02

2▲ 3 Rushing touchdowns = 22

Ball security

1= 1 Turnovers = 11

1= 1 Interceptions thrown ▼ 01

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

53▲ 107 Penalty yards ▼ 1052

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 295.5 Proj. 369 72% Won · 390

Passing yards Over 173.5 Proj. 230 72% Won · 253

Rushing yards Over 85.5 Proj. 138 72% Won · 137

First downs Over 15.5 Proj. 19 73% Lost · 12

Total yards Over 309.5 Proj. 383 72% Won · 425

Passing yards Over 180.5 Proj. 238 72% Won · 296

Rushing yards Over 92.5 Proj. 145 72% Won · 129

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 71% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Maryland

QB Malik Washington20/33 · 230 pass yds · 1.0 TD · 0.8 INT 230pass yds

RB DeJuan Williams15 carries · 70 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 70rush yds

WR/TE Chris Durr Jr.7 rec · 89 yds · 0.5 TD 89rec yds

WR/TE Kaleb Webb3 rec · 45 yds · 0.0 TD 45rec yds

Purdue

QB Ryan Browne18/30 · 219 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.8 INT 219pass yds

RB Fame Ijeboi20 carries · 89 rush yds · 1.1 TD · 2 rec 89rush yds

WR/TE Asaad Waseem5 rec · 80 yds · 0.0 TD 80rec yds

WR/TE Xavier Townsend4 rec · 52 yds · 0.8 TD 52rec yds

Road form. Maryland is 1-2 on the road this season, losing by 10.0 points a game.

Home form. Purdue is 2-3 at home, scoring 31.4 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at PUR −6.5 and is now PUR −5.5, a 1-point move toward Maryland.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Maryland has lost 6 in a row.

Tale of the tape

MarylandPurdue

2-6Record3-5

1-2 roadRoad / home2-3 home

L6StreakL2

7 daysRest7 days

26.9Points per game29.5

31.6Points allowed32.1

−38 Point differentialseason to date −21

238Passing yards / game263

129Rushing yards / game117

35%3rd-down conversion41%

11Takeaways10

0Sacks0

9Turnovers8

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Maryland’s road games with Purdue’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.