Moneyline
OSU ML−10000
Won 85%
Ohio State wins the game.
Confidence85%
Model97.9%
SportsbooksOdds98.4%
Edge−0.5
Maryland vs Ohio State prediction, picks and odds
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MD | 3 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
| OSU | 14 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 45 |
MARYLAND 2%
Pre-game win chance
98% OHIO STATE
OSU by 43 · 43 points
Updated Oct 10, 8:13 PM ET
Maryland vs Ohio State picks
3 picks · Ohio State by 43 · 43 points · 3 of 3 wonSpread
OSU −24.5odds up −250
Won 85%
Ohio State wins by 25 points or more.
Confidence85%
Model71.6%
SportsbooksOdds68.7%
Edge+2.9
TotalBest pick
Under 64.5odds up −263
Won 85%
The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.
Confidence85%
Model70.5%
SportsbooksOdds70.6%
Edge−0.1
Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.
Predicted score by quarter
The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first
TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal
Maryland000000
Ohio State101310102343
Most likely final scoresMD 0–43 OSU 0.8%MD 7–45 OSU 0.8%MD 7–42 OSU 0.8%
Projected box score
Model only
Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line
MarylandOhio State
Offense
277▼ 146
Total yards
▼ 449461
186▼ 64
Passing yards
▼ 242286
91▼ 82
Rushing yards
▲ 207175
16▼ 10
First downs
= 2424
Scoring
0▲ 2
Touchdowns
▲ 65
0= 0
Passing touchdowns
▲ 43
0▲ 1
Rushing touchdowns
= 22
0▲ 1
Field goals made
▼ 12
Ball security
1▼ 0
Turnovers
▲ 21
1▼ 0
Interceptions thrown
= 11
0= 0
Fumbles lost
▲ 10
0
Sacks allowed
0
53▲ 60
Penalty yards
▲ 6556
Team stat picks
The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds
Total yards
Over 204.5
Proj. 277
72%
Lost · 146
Passing yards
Over 129.5
Proj. 187
72%
Lost · 64
Rushing yards
Over 38.5
Proj. 91
72%
Won · 82
First downs
Over 12.5
Proj. 16
72%
Lost · 10
Total yards
Over 388.5
Proj. 461
72%
Won · 449
Passing yards
Over 229.5
Proj. 286
72%
Won · 242
Rushing yards
Over 122.5
Proj. 175
72%
Won · 207
First downs
Over 20.5
Proj. 24
70%
Won · 24
Key players
Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers
Maryland
QB
Malik Washington19/35 · 173 pass yds · 0.0 TD · 0.8 INT
173pass yds
RB
Iverson Howard9 carries · 26 rush yds · 0.0 TD · 1 rec
26rush yds
WR/TE
Chris Durr Jr.6 rec · 62 yds · 0.0 TD
62rec yds
WR/TE
Dorian Fleming3 rec · 23 yds · 0.0 TD
23rec yds
Ohio State
QB
Julian Sayin19/27 · 245 pass yds · 2.4 TD · 0.2 INT
245pass yds
RB
Bo Jackson13 carries · 78 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 2 rec
78rush yds
WR/TE
Jeremiah Smith8 rec · 132 yds · 1.7 TD
132rec yds
WR/TE
Devin Mccuin3 rec · 39 yds · 0.4 TD
39rec yds
Road form. Maryland is 1-1 on the road this season.
Home form. Ohio State is 3-0 at home, scoring 52.3 points a game there.
Line move. The spread opened at OSU −33.5 and is now OSU −31.5, a 2-point move toward Maryland.
Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.
Streak. Maryland has lost 3 in a row.
Tale of the tape
MarylandOhio State
MarylandOhio State
2-3Record4-1
1-1 roadRoad / home3-0 home
L3StreakW3
7 daysRest7 days
30.4Points per game42.2
30.2Points allowed12.6
+1
Point differentialseason to date
+148
277Passing yards / game357
147Rushing yards / game157
36%3rd-down conversion47%
7Takeaways8
0Sacks0
7Turnovers4
302Passing yards / game394
133Rushing yards / game178
31%3rd-down conversion45%
2Takeaways4
0Sacks0
2Turnovers3
Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Maryland’s road games with Ohio State’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.
Recent games
Most recent first · closing moneyline beside each score · form reads oldest to newestMost recent first · closing moneyline
Maryland
2-3
WWLLL
Wk 5Oct 3@ NEB
Maryland23Nebraska48
Maryland moneyline +480Nebraska moneyline −909
LFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs UCLA
UCLA54Maryland3
UCLA moneyline −147Maryland moneyline +114
LFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs VT
Virginia Tech35Maryland26
Virginia Tech moneyline −145Maryland moneyline +108
LFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ CONN
Maryland38UConn14
Maryland moneyline −526UConn moneyline +340
WFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs HAMP
Hampton0Maryland62
Hampton moneyline +1100Maryland: no odds on record
WFINAL
Ohio State
4-1
WLWWW
Wk 5Oct 3@ IOWA
Ohio State31Iowa14
Ohio State moneyline −769Iowa moneyline +480
WFINAL
Wk 4Sep 26vs ILL
Illinois19Ohio State42
Illinois moneyline +1200Ohio State moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Wk 3Sep 19vs KENT
Kent State3Ohio State59
Kent State moneyline +1600Ohio State moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Wk 2Sep 12@ TEX
Ohio State23Texas24
Ohio State moneyline +105Texas moneyline −145
LFINAL
Wk 1Sep 5vs BALL
Ball State3Ohio State56
Ball State moneyline +1100Ohio State moneyline −10000
WFINAL
Standings
2026 season · conference standings · todayTeams in this gameBig Ten
#Team
WLT
W-L
PCTPFPA
DIFFSTRKSTK
Line movement
MarketOpenNow
Moneyline (MD)+1900+1900
Moneyline (OSU)−10000−10000
Spread (OSU)−33.5up −31.5
Total56up 56.5
Where each line opened and where it sits now at the sportsbooks we follow. Spreads are listed for the home team.
Ohio State beat Maryland 45–16 in college football Week 6, on Saturday, October 10 at 4:15 PM ET. The moneyline had Maryland at +1900 and Ohio State at −10000.
Our model predicted a final score of Maryland 0, Ohio State 43. Its picks: Ohio State to win (−10000), won; Ohio State −24.5 (−250), won; under 64.5 points (−263), won. The best pick was under 64.5 points, at 85% confidence.