Louisville vs Syracuse Prediction & Picks

Score by quarter
Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	T
LOU	14	14	0	6	34
SYR	10	13	0	3	26

Louisville vs Syracuse picks

3 picks · Louisville by 7 · 63 points · 3 of 3 won

MoneylineBest pick

LOU MLodds up −714 Won 92%

Louisville wins the game.

Confidence92%

Model79.6% SportsbooksOdds86.6% Edge−7.0

Spread

SYR +22.5odds up −238 Won 79%

Syracuse wins, or loses by 22 points or fewer.

Confidence79%

Model69.5% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+0.8

Total

Under 64.5odds down −278 Won 74%

The two teams score 64 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model71.3% SportsbooksOdds69.3% Edge+2.0

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Louisville714772135

Syracuse770141428

Most likely final scoresLOU 35–28 SYR 0.5%LOU 28–21 SYR 0.5%LOU 35–21 SYR 0.5%

Projected box score Model only Built from 17 full box scores per team · not a betting line

LouisvilleSyracuse

Offense

412▲ 425 Total yards ▲ 462370

210▲ 310 Passing yards ▲ 339231

202▼ 115 Rushing yards ▼ 123139

21▼ 15 First downs ▲ 2622

Scoring

5= 5 Touchdowns = 33

2▼ 1 Passing touchdowns = 22

3▲ 4 Rushing touchdowns = 11

0= 0 Field goals made = 22

Ball security

1▲ 2 Turnovers ▲ 31

1▲ 2 Interceptions thrown ▲ 21

1▼ 0 Fumbles lost = 11

0 Sacks allowed 0

64▲ 90 Penalty yards ▲ 8867

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 339.5 Proj. 412 72% Won · 425

Passing yards Over 153.5 Proj. 210 72% Won · 310

Rushing yards Over 149.5 Proj. 202 72% Lost · 115

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 72% Lost · 15

Total yards Over 296.5 Proj. 370 72% Won · 462

Passing yards Over 174.5 Proj. 231 72% Won · 339

Rushing yards Over 86.5 Proj. 139 72% Won · 123

First downs Over 18.5 Proj. 22 70% Won · 26

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Louisville

QB Lincoln Kienholz16/26 · 204 pass yds · 1.8 TD · 0.6 INT 204pass yds

RB Isaac Brown12 carries · 81 rush yds · 0.6 TD · 2 rec 81rush yds

WR/TE Tre Richardson4 rec · 59 yds · 0.4 TD 59rec yds

WR/TE Treyshun Hurry4 rec · 36 yds · 0.0 TD 36rec yds

Syracuse

QB Malachi Nelson8/16 · 93 pass yds · 0.3 TD · 0.0 INT 93pass yds

RB Tylik Hill15 carries · 81 rush yds · 0.1 TD · 1 rec 81rush yds

WR/TE Umari Hatcher7 rec · 92 yds · 1.0 TD 92rec yds

WR/TE Darius Johnson3 rec · 23 yds · 0.0 TD 23rec yds

Road form. Louisville is 0-2 on the road this season, losing by 3.0 points a game.

Home form. Syracuse is 1-1 at home, scoring 42.0 points a game there.

Line move. The spread opened at SYR +12.5 and is now SYR +14.5, a 2-point move toward Louisville.

Rest. Louisville comes in on 8 days’ rest, Syracuse on 7.

Tale of the tape

LouisvilleSyracuse

3-3Record2-3

0-2 roadRoad / home1-1 home

W1StreakL1

8 daysRest7 days

39.5Points per game32.8

27.7Points allowed24.0

+71 Point differentialseason to date +44

263Passing yards / game280

232Rushing yards / game167

45%3rd-down conversion47%

9Takeaways6

0Sacks0

4Turnovers7

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Louisville’s road games with Syracuse’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.