Louisville vs North Carolina Prediction & Picks

Louisville vs North Carolina picks

3 picks · Louisville by 7 · 55 points

Moneyline

LOU MLodds down −179 85%

Louisville wins the game.

Confidence85%

Model63.4% SportsbooksOdds57.1% Edge+6.3

SpreadBest pick

LOU +5.5odds down −323 78%

Louisville wins, or loses by five points or fewer.

Confidence78%

Model76.4% SportsbooksOdds68.7% Edge+7.7

Total

Under 68.5−256 74%

The two teams score 68 or fewer points between them.

Confidence74%

Model78.2% SportsbooksOdds68.9% Edge+9.3

Reading a pick: Sportsbooks is the win chance built into the odds when the pick went up, Model is our model’s own number, and Edge is the gap between them. Every pick is graded once the game is final.

Predicted score by quarter The model’s most likely score in each quarter, away team first

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q41st halfFinal

Louisville777101431

North Carolina07143724

Most likely final scoresLOU 31–24 UNC 0.6%LOU 27–24 UNC 0.6%LOU 24–21 UNC 0.6%

Projected box score Model only Built from 18 full box scores per team · not a betting line

LouisvilleNorth Carolina

Offense

414 Total yards 362

231 Passing yards 248

183 Rushing yards 114

21 First downs 21

Scoring

4 Touchdowns 3

2 Passing touchdowns 2

2 Rushing touchdowns 1

1 Field goals made 1

Ball security

1 Turnovers 1

1 Interceptions thrown 1

1 Fumbles lost 1

0 Sacks allowed 0

56 Penalty yards 51

Team stat picks The model’s own lines on each team’s yards and first downs · no sportsbook odds

Total yards Over 341.5 Proj. 414 72%

Passing yards Over 173.5 Proj. 231 72%

Rushing yards Over 131.5 Proj. 184 72%

First downs Over 16.5 Proj. 21 74%

Total yards Over 288.5 Proj. 362 72%

Passing yards Over 191.5 Proj. 248 72%

Rushing yards Over 61.5 Proj. 114 72%

First downs Over 17.5 Proj. 21 70%

Key players Projected lines for each team’s quarterback, running back and top receivers

Louisville

QB Lincoln Kienholz19/30 · 227 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.7 INT 227pass yds

RB Keyjuan Brown10 carries · 55 rush yds · 0.4 TD · 1 rec 55rush yds

WR/TE Tre Richardson5 rec · 69 yds · 0.5 TD 69rec yds

WR/TE Treyshun Hurry6 rec · 57 yds · 0.5 TD 57rec yds

North Carolina

QB Billy Edwards Jr.23/36 · 248 pass yds · 2.0 TD · 0.8 INT 248pass yds

RB Demon June11 carries · 47 rush yds · 0.7 TD · 2 rec 47rush yds

WR/TE Jordan Shipp6 rec · 78 yds · 0.5 TD 78rec yds

WR/TE Jelani Thurman6 rec · 56 yds · 0.9 TD 56rec yds

Line move. The spread opened at UNC +2.5 and is now UNC +3.5, a 1-point move toward Louisville.

Rest. Both teams come in on 7 days’ rest.

Streak. Louisville has won 4 in a row.

Tale of the tape

LouisvilleNorth Carolina

6-3Record5-4

W4StreakW1

7 daysRest7 days

40.8Points per game27.1

25.9Points allowed22.8

5th ACCConference9th ACC

+134 Point differentialseason to date +39

260Passing yards / game239

228Rushing yards / game114

44%3rd-down conversion46%

15Takeaways11

0Sacks0

8Turnovers12

Season to date, per game, from the box scores; “road · home” compares Louisville’s road games with North Carolina’s home games. The brighter bar marks the better side.